IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/azt/cemmap/17-16.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bounds On Treatment Effects On Transitions

Author

Listed:
  • Johan Vikström
  • Geert Ridder
  • Martin Weidner

Abstract

This paper considers identifcation of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Because treated and control units drop out at diff erent rates, randomization only ensures the comparability of treatment and controls at the time of randomization, so that long run average treatment effects are not point identified. Instead we derive informative bounds on these average treatment effects. Our bounds do not impose (semi)parametric restrictions, as e.g. proportional hazards. We also explore various assumptions such as monotone treatment response, common shocks and positively correlated outcomes hat tighten the bounds.

Suggested Citation

  • Johan Vikström & Geert Ridder & Martin Weidner, 2016. "Bounds On Treatment Effects On Transitions," CeMMAP working papers 17/16, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:azt:cemmap:17/16
    DOI: 10.1920/wp.cem.2016.1716
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cemmap.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/CWP1716.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1920/wp.cem.2016.1716?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ridder, G, 1986. "An Event History Approach to the Evaluation of Training, Recruitment and Employment Programmes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(2), pages 109-126, April.
    2. Gerard J. van den Berg, 1990. "Nonstationarity in Job Search Theory," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(2), pages 255-277.
    3. Andrews, Donald W.K. & Guggenberger, Patrik, 2009. "Validity Of Subsampling And “Plug-In Asymptotic” Inference For Parameters Defined By Moment Inequalities," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 669-709, June.
    4. Charles F. Manski, 1997. "Monotone Treatment Response," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1311-1334, November.
    5. Donald W. K. Andrews & Panle Jia Barwick, 2012. "Inference for Parameters Defined by Moment Inequalities: A Recommended Moment Selection Procedure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2805-2826, November.
    6. Jochen Kluve & David Card & Michael Fertig & Marek Góra & Lena Jacobi & Peter Jensen & Reelika Leetmaa & Leonhard Nima & Eleonora Patacchini & Sandra Schaffner & Christoph M. Schmidt & Bas Klaauw & An, 2007. "Active Labor Market Policies in Europe," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-540-48558-2, December.
    7. Abbring, Jaap H. & Heckman, James J., 2007. "Econometric Evaluation of Social Programs, Part III: Distributional Treatment Effects, Dynamic Treatment Effects, Dynamic Discrete Choice, and General Equilibrium Policy Evaluation," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 72, Elsevier.
    8. Card, David & Sullivan, Daniel G, 1988. "Measuring the Effect of Subsidized Training Programs on Movements in and out of Employment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(3), pages 497-530, May.
    9. Liliane Bonnal & Denis Fougère & Anne Sérandon, 1997. "Evaluating the Impact of French Employment Policies on Individual Labour Market Histories," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 64(4), pages 683-713.
    10. Woodbury, Stephen A & Spiegelman, Robert G, 1987. "Bonuses to Workers and Employers to Reduce Unemployment: Randomized Trials in Illinois," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 513-530, September.
    11. Heckman, James J. & Navarro, Salvador, 2007. "Dynamic discrete choice and dynamic treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 341-396, February.
    12. Gritz, R. Mark, 1993. "The impact of training on the frequency and duration of employment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 21-51.
    13. Charles F. Manski & John V. Pepper, 2000. "Monotone Instrumental Variables, with an Application to the Returns to Schooling," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(4), pages 997-1012, July.
    14. Rosen, Adam M., 2008. "Confidence sets for partially identified parameters that satisfy a finite number of moment inequalities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 107-117, September.
    15. Donald W. K. Andrews & Gustavo Soares, 2010. "Inference for Parameters Defined by Moment Inequalities Using Generalized Moment Selection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(1), pages 119-157, January.
    16. Meyer, Bruce D, 1996. "What Have We Learned from the Illinois Reemployment Bonus Experiment?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 26-51, January.
    17. Ham, John C & LaLonde, Robert J, 1996. "The Effect of Sample Selection and Initial Conditions in Duration Models: Evidence from Experimental Data on Training," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(1), pages 175-205, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vikström, Johan & Ridder, Geert & Weidner, Martin, 2018. "Bounds on treatment effects on transitions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 205(2), pages 448-469.
    2. Johan Vikström & Geert Ridder & Martin Weidner, 2015. "Bounds on treatment effects on transitions," CeMMAP working papers 01/15, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    3. Jaap Abbring & James Heckman, 2008. "Dynamic policy analysis," CeMMAP working papers CWP05/08, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    4. Guido W. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2009. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 5-86, March.
    5. Wooyoung Kim & Koohyun Kwon & Soonwoo Kwon & Sokbae Lee, 2018. "The identification power of smoothness assumptions in models with counterfactual outcomes," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(2), pages 617-642, July.
    6. Lee, Sokbae & Song, Kyungchul & Whang, Yoon-Jae, 2018. "Testing For A General Class Of Functional Inequalities," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(5), pages 1018-1064, October.
    7. Donald W. K. Andrews & Xiaoxia Shi, 2013. "Inference Based on Conditional Moment Inequalities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(2), pages 609-666, March.
    8. Ivan A. Canay & Azeem M. Shaikh, 2016. "Practical and theoretical advances in inference for partially identified models," CeMMAP working papers 05/16, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    9. Picchio, Matteo & van Ours, Jan C., 2013. "Retaining through training even for older workers," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 29-48.
    10. Francesca Molinari, 2020. "Microeconometrics with Partial Identi?cation," CeMMAP working papers CWP15/20, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    11. Francesca Molinari, 2019. "Econometrics with Partial Identification," CeMMAP working papers CWP25/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    12. Sokbae (Simon) Lee & Kyungchui (Kevin) Song & Yoon-Jae Whang, 2014. "Testing for a general class of functional inequalities," CeMMAP working papers 09/14, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    13. Kyungchul Song, 2009. "Point Decisions for Interval-Identified Parameters," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-036, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    14. Wooyoung Kim & Koohyun Kwon & Soonwoo Kwon & Sokbae (Simon) Lee, 2014. "The identification power of smoothness assumptions in models with counterfactual outcomes," CeMMAP working papers 17/14, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    15. Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Kengo Kato, 2013. "Testing Many Moment Inequalities," CeMMAP working papers 65/13, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    16. Menzel, Konrad, 2014. "Consistent estimation with many moment inequalities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(2), pages 329-350.
    17. Xiaohong Chen & Timothy M. Christensen & Elie Tamer, 2018. "Monte Carlo Confidence Sets for Identified Sets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(6), pages 1965-2018, November.
    18. Xiaohong Chen & Timothy Christensen & Keith O’Hara & Elie Tamer, 2016. "MCMC Confidence sets for Identified Sets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2037R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 2016.
    19. Aderonke Osikominu, 2013. "Quick Job Entry or Long-Term Human Capital Development? The Dynamic Effects of Alternative Training Schemes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(1), pages 313-342.
    20. Madeira, João & Palma, Nuno, 2018. "Measuring monetary policy deviations from the Taylor rule," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 25-27.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:azt:cemmap:17/16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dermot Watson (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifsssuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.