Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Short Term Macro Monitoring: Leading Indicator Construction-Mexico

Contents:

Author Info

  • Stephen Everhart
  • Robert Duval-Hernandez

Abstract

This paper constructs a composite-leading indicator (CLI) to forecast economic activity/business cycles in Mexico. This cycle is the result of deviations of the economy from its long-term trend. Here, a contractionary phase means a decline in the rate of growth of the economy, and not necessarily an absolute decline in economic activity. For this analysis it is necessary to select an indicator of economic activity (usually the Index of Industrial Production, IIP), as well as a group of variables that, when filtered/adjusted construct the CLI that forecasts the reference series. Selection of the components of the leading indicator is based on the forecast efficiency of the series and on their economic significance. Once selected, the relevant variables are aggregated into a single CLI that forecasts the detrended IIP. For detrending the series, the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) Filter method is applied. This method is a smoothing technique that decomposes seasonal adjusted series into cyclical and trend components. One of the advantages of the HP Filter is that provides a reasonable estimate of the long-term trend of a series.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://icepp.gsu.edu/sites/default/files/documents/icepp/wp/ispwp0108.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University in its series International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU with number paper0108.

as in new window
Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper0108

Contact details of provider:
Phone: 404-413-0235
Fax: 404-413-0244
Web page: http://aysps.gsu.edu/isp/index.html

Related research

Keywords: Macro Monitoring; Leading Indicator Construction; Mexico;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Abu Mansor, Shazali & Puah, Chin-Hong & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, 2012. "Forecasting malaysian business cycle movement: empirical evidence from composite leading indicator," MPRA Paper 36649, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Puah, Chin-Hong & Abu Mansor, Shazali & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, 2012. "Early warning indicator of economic vulnerability," MPRA Paper 39944, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper0108. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Paul Benson).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.