IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aut/wpaper/2023-03.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Initial and Dynamic Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Crime in New Zealand

Author

Listed:
  • Lydia Cheung

    (Auckland University of Technology)

  • Philip Gunby

    (University of Canterbury)

Abstract

We use seasonal ARIMA methods to study the imposition and removal of national uniform social distancing restrictions in response to Covid-19 in New Zealand for six crime types in six cities. We then use the estimated models to forecast counterfactual crime trajectories. Novel elements include cleanly defined lockdown periods, two dis- tinct lockdowns with meaningful gaps between them, and sizeable periods after each one to allow for dynamics. We find that social restrictions initially lower offending, subsequent lockdowns have smaller impacts on offending, “bounce back” occurs in criminal offending after their removal, and bounce back is faster from subsequent lockdowns.

Suggested Citation

  • Lydia Cheung & Philip Gunby, 2023. "The Initial and Dynamic Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Crime in New Zealand," Working Papers 2023-03, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:aut:wpaper:2023-03
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aut.ac.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/766570/working-paper-23_03.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Leslie, Emily & Wilson, Riley, 2020. "Sheltering in place and domestic violence: Evidence from calls for service during COVID-19," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    2. Hoehn-Velasco, Lauren & Silverio-Murillo, Adan & de la Miyar, Jose Roberto Balmori, 2021. "The great crime recovery: Crimes against women during, and after, the COVID-19 lockdown in Mexico," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    3. Payne, Jason Leslie & Morgan, Anthony, 2020. "Property Crime during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A comparison of recorded offence rates and dynamic forecasts (ARIMA) for March 2020 in Queensland, Australia," SocArXiv de9nc, Center for Open Science.
    4. Lydia Cheung & Philip Gunby, 2022. "Crime and mobility during the COVID-19 lockdown: a preliminary empirical exploration," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(1), pages 106-113, January.
    5. Tauchen, Helen V & Witte, Ann Dryden & Long, Sharon K, 1991. "Domestic Violence: A Nonrandom Affair," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 32(2), pages 491-511, May.
    6. Michael Fletcher & Kate C. Prickett & Simon Chapple, 2022. "Immediate employment and income impacts of Covid-19 in New Zealand: evidence from a survey conducted during the Alert Level 4 lockdown," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(1), pages 73-80, January.
    7. Mohler, George & Bertozzi, Andrea L. & Carter, Jeremy & Short, Martin B. & Sledge, Daniel & Tita, George E. & Uchida, Craig D. & Brantingham, P. Jeffrey, 2020. "Impact of social distancing during COVID-19 pandemic on crime in Los Angeles and Indianapolis," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Amy E. Nivette & Renee Zahnow & Raul Aguilar & Andri Ahven & Shai Amram & Barak Ariel & María José Arosemena Burbano & Roberta Astolfi & Dirk Baier & Hyung-Min Bark & Joris E. H. Beijers & Marcelo Ber, 2021. "A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(7), pages 868-877, July.
    9. Hodgkinson, Tarah & Andresen, Martin A., 2020. "Show me a man or a woman alone and I'll show you a saint: Changes in the frequency of criminal incidents during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    10. Amy Farmer & Jill Tiefenthaler, 1997. "An Economic Analysis of Domestic Violence," Review of Social Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(3), pages 337-358.
    11. Payne, Jason Leslie & Morgan, Anthony, 2020. "COVID-19 and Violent Crime: A comparison of recorded offence rates and dynamic forecasts (ARIMA) for March 2020 in Queensland, Australia," SocArXiv g4kh7, Center for Open Science.
    12. Abrams, David S., 2021. "COVID and crime: An early empirical look," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    13. Justin McCrary & Sarath Sanga, 2021. "The Impact of the Coronavirus Lockdown on Domestic Violence," American Law and Economics Review, American Law and Economics Association, vol. 23(1), pages 137-163.
    14. Maani, Sholeh A., 2021. "COVID-19 Government Responses to Labour Market Disruptions and Economic Impacts: The New Zealand Model," IZA Discussion Papers 14929, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Ehrlich, Isaac, 1973. "Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 521-565, May-June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlos Díaz & Sebastian Fossati & Nicolás Trajtenberg, 2022. "Stay at home if you can: COVID‐19 stay‐at‐home guidelines and local crime," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(4), pages 1067-1113, December.
    2. Solmaz Moslehi & Jaai Parasnis & Massimiliano Tani & Josephina Vejayaratnam, 2021. "Assaults during lockdown in New South Wales and Victoria," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 24(2), pages 199-212.
    3. Moslehi, Solmaz & Parasnis, Jaai & Tani, Massimiliano & Vejayaratnam, Josephina, 2021. "Assaults during Lockdown in NSW and Victoria," IZA Discussion Papers 14573, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Roee Sarel, 2022. "Crime and punishment in times of pandemics," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 155-186, October.
    5. Lydia Cheung & Philip Gunby, 2022. "Crime and mobility during the COVID-19 lockdown: a preliminary empirical exploration," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(1), pages 106-113, January.
    6. Miller, Amalia R. & Segal, Carmit & Spencer, Melissa K., 2022. "Effects of COVID‐19 shutdowns on domestic violence in US cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    7. Ejrnæs, Anders & Scherg, Rune H., 2022. "Nightlife activity and crime: The impact of COVID-19 related nightlife restrictions on violent crime," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Yichen Shen & Rong Fu & Haruko Noguchi, 2021. "COVID‐19's Lockdown and Crime Victimization: The State of Emergency under the Abe Administration," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(2), pages 327-348, July.
    9. Veronica Grembi & Anna C. Rosso & Emilia Barili, 2024. "Domestic violence perception and gender stereotypes," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(1), pages 1-32, March.
    10. Juan F Domínguez D & Johnny Truong & Jake Burnett & Lata Satyen & Hamed Akhlaghi & Julian Stella & Nick Rushworth & Karen Caeyenberghs, 2022. "Effects of the Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic on Assault-Related Head Injury in Melbourne: A Retrospective Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-19, December.
    11. Gian Maria Campedelli & Serena Favarin & Alberto Aziani & Alex R. Piquero, 2020. "Disentangling Community-level Changes in Crime Trends During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Chicago," Papers 2011.05658, arXiv.org.
    12. Langton, Samuel & Farrell, Graham & Dixon, Anthony, 2020. "Six Months In: Pandemic Crime Trends in England and Wales," SocArXiv t7ne8, Center for Open Science.
    13. Marco Colagrossi & Claudio Deiana & Andrea Geraci & Ludovica Giua, 2022. "Hang up on stereotypes: Domestic violence and an anti‐abuse helpline campaign," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 585-611, October.
    14. Barron, Kai & Parry, Charles D.H. & Bradshaw, Debbie & Dorrington, Rob & Groenewald, Pam & Laubscher, Ria & Matzopoulos, Richard, 2022. "Alcohol, Violence and Injury-Induced Mortality: Evidence from a Modern-Day Prohibition," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue Online Ea, pages 1-44.
    15. Gourley, Patrick & Madonia, Greg, 2018. "Resource booms and crime: Evidence from oil and gas production in Colorado," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 37-52.
    16. Bilge Erten & Pinar Keskin & Silvia Prina, 2022. "Social Distancing, Stimulus Payments, and Domestic Violence: Evidence from the US during COVID-19," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 112, pages 262-266, May.
    17. Lin Liu & Jiayu Chang & Dongping Long & Heng Liu, 2022. "Analyzing the Impact of COVID-19 Lockdowns on Violent Crime," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-10, November.
    18. Santiago M. Perez-Vincent & Enrique Carreras, 2022. "Domestic violence reporting during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from Latin America," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 799-830, September.
    19. Dan Anderberg & Helmut Rainer & Fabian Siuda, 2022. "Quantifying domestic violence in times of crisis: An internet search activity‐based measure for the COVID‐19 pandemic," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(2), pages 498-518, April.
    20. Carter, Travis M. & Turner, Noah D., 2021. "Examining the immediate effects of COVID-19 on residential and commercial burglaries in Michigan: An interrupted time-series analysis," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aut:wpaper:2023-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gail Pacheco (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fbautnz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.