Consistent Dynamic Affine Mortality Model for Longevity Risk Applications
AbstractThis paper proposes and assesses consistent multi-factor dynamic affine mortality models for longevity risk applications. The dynamics of the model produce closed-form expressions for survival curves. The framework includes an arbitrage-free model specification. There are multiple risk factors allowing applications to hedging and pricing mortality and longevity bonds, mortality derivatives and more general risk management problems. A state-space representation is used to estimate parameters for the model with the Kalman filter. A 3-factor model specification is shown to provide a good fit to the observed survival curves especially for older ages, and performs better than the 2-factor models. Consistent models are shown to improve model performance and stability.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales in its series Working Papers with number 201107.
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: May 2011
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Ground Floor, East Wing, UNSW Kensington Campus, Sydney NSW 2052
Phone: (+61)-2-9931 9202
Fax: (+61)-2 9385 6956
Web page: http://www.cepar.edu.au
More information through EDIRC
Mortality model; longevity risk; multi-factor; affine; arbitrage-free; consistent; Kalman filter; Swedish mortality;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
- G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Elisa Luciano & Elena Vigna, 2006.
"Non mean reverting affne processes for stochastic mortality,"
Carlo Alberto Notebooks
30, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
- Elisa Luciano & Elena Vigna, 2005. "Non mean reverting affine processes for stochastic mortality," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 4-2005, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
- Andersen, Torben G. & Lund, Jesper, 1997. "Estimating continuous-time stochastic volatility models of the short-term interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 343-377, April.
- Björk, Tomas & Christensen, Bent Jesper, 1997.
"Interest Rate Dynamics and Consistent Forward Rate Curves,"
Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
209, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Tomas Björk & Bent Jesper Christensen, 1999. "Interest Rate Dynamics and Consistent Forward Rate Curves," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(4), pages 323-348.
- De Rossi, Giuliano, 2004. "Kalman filtering of consistent forward rate curves: a tool to estimate and model dynamically the term structure," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 277-308, March.
- Jens H.E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008.
"An Arbitrage-Free Generalized Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Model,"
NBER Working Papers
14463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009. "An arbitrage-free generalized Nelson--Siegel term structure model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(3), pages C33-C64, November.
- Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008. "An Arbitrage-Free Generalized Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Model," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-030, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008. "An arbitrage-free generalized Nelson-Siegel term structure model," Working Paper Series 2008-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406.
- Babbs, Simon H. & Nowman, K. Ben, 1999. "Kalman Filtering of Generalized Vasicek Term Structure Models," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 115-130, March.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Elena Capatina).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.