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Valuation Construction Permit Uncertainties in Real Estate Development Projects with Stochastic Decision Tree Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Serhat Basdogan
  • Hilde Remøy
  • Ruud Binnekamp

Abstract

With the rapid development of real estate markets under globalization and exponential competitive market conditions, risk evaluation has been one of the most important tasks in the process of real estate investment valuation. This paper describes the relationship between construction permit uncertainties and real estate development projects by using the Decision Tree Analysis (DTA) approach together with Monte Carlo simulations. Expected Value (EV) criterion for an office development project proposed and incorporated into conventional Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis which is determined by stochastic DTA. This will help utility function to come closer to the real world, so that decision making and risk analysis can be done based on the real and possible data providing better conditions for investors. The results are consistent with the results calculated by conventional DCF analysis. However research demonstrates that is of application Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and DTA obviate the deficiencies of conventional DCF analysis under construction permit delays and scheduling uncertainties. Results also emphasize the importance of applying EV and DTA for the construction permit delays generate a significant change in NPV and also investment decisions of real estate development projects.

Suggested Citation

  • Serhat Basdogan & Hilde Remøy & Ruud Binnekamp, 2018. "Valuation Construction Permit Uncertainties in Real Estate Development Projects with Stochastic Decision Tree Analysis," ERES eres2018_265, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    • Handle: RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2018_265
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baroni, Michel & Barthélémy, Fabrice & Mokrane, Mahdi, 2006. "Monte Carlo Simulations versus DCF in Real Estate Portfolio Valuation," ESSEC Working Papers DR 06002, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    2. Hughes, William T, 1995. "Risk Analysis and Asset Valuation: A Monte Carlo Simulation Using Stochastic Rents," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 177-187, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Decision Tree Analysis; Expected Value; Monte Carlo Simulation; Real Estate Development; Valuation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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