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Valuing and Pricing Retail Leases with Renewal and Overage Options

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  • Patric H. Hendershott
  • Charles W.R. Ward

Abstract

We consider retail leases with landlord overages options, with tenant renewal options, with both and with neither. We illustrate how the ratio of initial expected sales to the sales threshold can be manipulated to equate the value of the landlord overage options to that of the tenant renewal option at the same initial rent. As a result, not only are the values of the dual option overage plus renewal lease and no option leases are equal, but the cumulative distributions of potential IRRs on the two leases are nearly identical, suggesting that these leases are equally attractive to risk-adverse investors and thus that the same risky discount rate can be used in valuing the leases. The analysis is carried out in a risk-neutral framework, and sensitivity of the results to interest rate uncertainty, real sales volatility and growth, and the required risk premium on retail real estate is shown. The appropriate risky discount rate for the overage lease is calculated to be 75 to 160 basis points greater than that for the renewal lease.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9214.

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Date of creation: Sep 2002
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Publication status: published as Hendershott, Patric H. and Charles W. R. Ward. "Valuing And Pricing Retail Leases With Renewal And Overage Options," Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2003, v26(2-3,Mar), 223-240.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9214

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  1. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1993. "One-Factor Interest-Rate Models and the Valuation of Interest-Rate Derivative Securities," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(02), pages 235-254, June.
  2. McConnell, John J. & Schallheim, James S., 1983. "Valuation of asset leasing contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 237-261, August.
  3. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 2000. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 275-308, March.
  4. Grenadier, Steven R., 1995. "Valuing lease contracts A real-options approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 297-331, July.
  5. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
  6. Miceli, Thomas J. & Sirmans, C. F., 1995. "Contracting with spatial externalities and agency problems The case of retail leases," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 355-372, June.
  7. Brueckner, Jan K, 1993. "Inter-store Externalities and Space Allocation in Shopping Centers," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 5-16, July.
  8. Peter F. Cowell & Henry J. Munneke, 1998. "Percentage Leases and the Advantages of Regional Malls," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 15(3), pages 239-252.
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Cited by:
  1. Jose Lopez, 2009. "Empirical analysis of the average asset correlation for real estate investment trusts," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 217-229.
  2. Shaun Bond & Pavlos Loizou & Patrick McAllister, 2008. "Lease Maturity and Initial Rent: Is There a Term Structure for UK Commercial Property Leases?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 451-469, May.
  3. Richard Stanton & Nancy Wallace, 2009. "An Empirical Test of a Contingent Claims Lease Valuation Model," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 31(1), pages 1-26.

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