IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arz/wpaper/eres2005_323.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing the Time-Varying Interest Rate Sensitivity of Real Estate Securities

Author

Listed:
  • Simon Stevenson
  • Pat Wilson
  • Ralf Zurbruegg

Abstract

This study aims to examine the relationship between interest rate movements and the price reaction of UK property stocks. While previous exists concerning the sensitivity of indirect real estate vehicles to interest rates, this study extends this literature by examining the time-varying sensitivity of property companies. Unlike REITs, which are limited in the level of leverage they can utilize, property companies are generally highly geared stocks, making the impact of interest rates highly important to the firms. Not only should interest rate movements have an impact due to their impact on the real economy and the direct real estate markets, but there will also be a direct impact upon the stocks due to their highly geared nature. A large number of studies have examined interest rate sensitivity in a real estate context, with a large number having examined REITs (e.g. Chen et al., 1997, Chen & Tzang, 1988, Liang & Webb, 1995, Ling & Naranjo, 1997, McCue & Kling, 1994, Mueller & Pauley, 1995, Swanson et al, 2002). This study extends this literature and particularly those recent studies to have examined time-varying aspects of real estate securities (Devaney, 2001). The paper also utilizes the broader literature that has analyzed the interest rate sensitivity of stocks generally. In particular, there is a large collection of papers to have examined the issue in specific relation to bank stocks (Choi et al, 1992, Elyasiani & Mansur, 1998 and Flannery et al., 1997). The data used in this study comprises of data over the period 1993 through 2003. The FTSE Property sector index is used to represent UK property stocks. The overnight Sterling LIBOR is used as a proxy for market rates. The paper examines the timevarying sensitivity of property stocks using a GARCH based framework. For comparative purposes, and in particular to allow comparisons with the studies of bank stock reaction, we also examine the reaction of property company stock prices to discount rate announcements. Bank of England base rate changes are used in this context to examine the immediate reaction to central bank rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Stevenson & Pat Wilson & Ralf Zurbruegg, 2005. "Assessing the Time-Varying Interest Rate Sensitivity of Real Estate Securities," ERES eres2005_323, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    • Handle: RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2005_323
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://eres.architexturez.net/doc/oai-eres-id-eres2005-323
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baillie, Richard T. & DeGennaro, Ramon P., 1990. "Stock Returns and Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 203-214, June.
    2. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    3. Cotter, John & Stevenson, Simon, 2004. "Uncovering Volatility Dynamics in Daily REIT Returns," MPRA Paper 3533, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2005.
    4. Kaen, Fred R. & Sherman, Heidemarie C. & Tehranian, Hassan, 1997. "The effects of Bundesbank discount and Lombard rate changes on German bank stocks," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, April.
    5. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dimitrios Gounopoulos & Kyriaki Kosmidou & Dimitrios Kousenidis & Victoria Patsika, 2019. "The investigation of the dynamic linkages between real estate market and stock market in Greece," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(7), pages 647-669, May.
    2. Bruce Morley & Dennis Thomas, 2016. "An Empirical Analysis of UK House Price Risk Variation by Property Type," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 6, pages 45-56, May.
    3. Alexey Akimov & Simon Stevenson, 2013. "Securitised Real Estate Regime-Switching Behaviour and the Relationship with Market Interest Rates," ERES eres2013_346, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    4. Sharma Manu, 2022. "Comparative Analysis: Influence of Interest Rates on Returns of Real Estate Private Equity Index and Real Estate Public Equity Index," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 30(4), pages 17-24, December.
    5. James Chong & Alexandra Krystalogianni & Simon Stevenson, "undated". "Dynamic Correlations across REIT Sub-Sectors," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2011-07, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    6. Chyi Lin Lee & Simon Stevenson & Ming‐Long Lee, 2018. "Low‐frequency volatility of real estate securities and macroeconomic risk," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(S1), pages 311-342, November.
    7. Paraskevi Katsiampa & Kyriaki Begiazi, 2019. "An empirical analysis of the Scottish housing market by property type," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(4), pages 559-583, September.
    8. Chee Seng Cheong & Patrick J. Wilson & Ralf Zurbruegg, 2009. "An analysis of the long‐run impact of fixed income and equity market performance on Australian and UK securitised property markets," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 27(3), pages 259-276, April.
    9. Elyas Elyasiani & Iqbal Mansur & Jill Wetmore, 2010. "Real-Estate Risk Effects on Financial Institutions’ Stock Return Distribution: a Bivariate GARCH Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 89-107, January.
    10. Don Bredin & Gerard O’Reilly & Simon Stevenson, 2007. "Monetary Shocks and REIT Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 315-331, October.
    11. Kyriaki Begiazi & Paraskevi Katsiampa, 2019. "Modelling UK House Prices with Structural Breaks and Conditional Variance Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 290-309, February.
    12. Asia Aman, 2019. "Are CDS Spreads Sensitive to the Term Structure of the Yield Curve? A Sector-Wise Analysis under Various Market Conditions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-13, September.
    13. James Chong & Alexandra Krystalogianni & Simon Stevenson, 2012. "Dynamic correlations between REIT sub-sectors and the implications for diversification," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(13), pages 1089-1109, July.
    14. Alexey Akimov & Simon Stevenson & Maxim Zagonov, 2015. "Public Real Estate and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Cross-Country Study," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 503-540, November.
    15. Lee, Chyi Lin & Stevenson, Simon & Cho, Hyunbum, 2022. "Listed real estate futures trading, market efficiency, and direct real estate linkages: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alagidede, Paul & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2009. "Modelling stock returns in Africa's emerging equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 1-11, March.
    2. Hunjra, Ahmed Imran & Azam, Muhammad & Niazi, Ghulam Shabbir Khan & Butt, Babar Zaheer & Rehman, Kashif-Ur- & Azam, Rauf i, 2010. "Risk and return relationship in stock market and commodity prices: a comprehensive study of Pakistani markets," MPRA Paper 40662, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Li, Qi & Yang, Jian & Hsiao, Cheng & Chang, Young-Jae, 2005. "The relationship between stock returns and volatility in international stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 650-665, December.
    4. De Santis, Giorgio & imrohoroglu, Selahattin, 1997. "Stock returns and volatility in emerging financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 561-579, August.
    5. Choudhry, Taufiq, 1996. "Stock market volatility and the crash of 1987: evidence from six emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 969-981, December.
    6. Chee Wooi Hooy & Hui Boon Tan & Annuar Md Nassir, 2004. "Risk Sensitivity of Bank Stocks in Malaysia: Empirical Evidence Across the Asian Financial Crisis," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 261-276, September.
    7. Sheriffdeen A. Tella & Olumuyiwa G. Yinusa & Ayinde Taofeek Olusola & Saban Celik, 2011. "Global Economic Crisis And Stock Markets Efficiency: Evidence From Selected Africa Countries," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 139-169.
    8. Ahmed, Mohamed S. & Alhadab, Mohammad, 2020. "Momentum, asymmetric volatility and idiosyncratic risk-momentum relation: Does technology-sector matter?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 355-371.
    9. Madhusudan Karmakar, 2007. "Asymmetric Volatility and Risk-return Relationship in the Indian Stock Market," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 8(1), pages 99-116, January.
    10. Elyasiani, Elyas & Mansur, Iqbal, 1998. "Sensitivity of the bank stock returns distribution to changes in the level and volatility of interest rate: A GARCH-M model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 535-563, May.
    11. Tim Bollerslev & Ray Y. Chou & Narayanan Jayaraman & Kenneth F. Kroner - L, 1991. "es modéles ARCH en finance : un point sur la théorie et les résultats empiriques," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 24, pages 1-59.
    12. Panayiotis Theodossiou & Christos S. Savva, 2016. "Skewness and the Relation Between Risk and Return," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(6), pages 1598-1609, June.
    13. Calzolari, Giorgio & Fiorentini, Gabriele & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1993. "Alternative estimators of the covariance matrix in GARCH models," MPRA Paper 24433, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Dimitrios Koutmos, 2015. "Is there a Positive Risk†Return Tradeoff? A Forward†Looking Approach to Measuring the Equity Premium," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 21(5), pages 974-1013, November.
    15. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, August.
    16. Kim, Dongcheol & Kon, Stanley J., 1999. "Structural change and time dependence in models of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 283-308, September.
    17. M. Kabir Hassan & Anisul M. Islam & Syed Abul Basher, 2000. "Market Efficiency, Time-Varying Volatility and Equity Returns in Bangladesh Stock Market," Working Papers 2002_6, York University, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2002.
    18. Murat Akkaya, 2021. "An Analysis of the Stock Market Volatility Spread in Emerging Countries," Istanbul Business Research, Istanbul University Business School, vol. 50(2), pages 215-233, November.
    19. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2011. "On the Risk-Return Tradeoff in the Stock Exchange of Thailand: New Evidence," MPRA Paper 45583, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Murinde V. & Poshakwala S., 2001. "Volatility in the Emerging Stock Markets in Central and Eastern Europe: Evidence on Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russia and Slovakia," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3-4), pages 73-102, July - De.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2005_323. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Architexturez Imprints (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eressea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.