Are Financial Crashes Predictable?
AbstractWe critically review recent claims that financial crashes can be predicted using the idea of log-periodic oscillations or by other methods inspired by the physics of critical phenomena. In particular, the October 1997 `correction' does not appear to be the accumulation point of a geometric series of local minima.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number cond-mat/9804111.
Date of creation: Apr 1998
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://arxiv.org/
Other versions of this item:
- G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Focardi, Sergio & Cincotti, Silvano & Marchesi, Michele, 2002. "Self-organization and market crashes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 241-267, October.
- D. Sornette & A. Johansen, 2001. "Significance of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Papers cond-mat/0106520, arXiv.org.
- John M. Fry, 2009.
"Statistical modelling of financial crashes: Rapid growth, illusion of certainty and contagion,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI_RP_2009_10, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Fry, J. M., 2009. "Statistical modelling of financial crashes: Rapid growth, illusion of certainty and contagion," MPRA Paper 16027, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Fry, J. M., 2010.
"Bubbles and crashes in finance: A phase transition from random to deterministic behaviour in prices,"
24778, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- John FRY, 2010. "Bubbles And Crashes In Finance: A Phase Transition From Random To Deterministic Behaviour In Prices," Journal of Applied Research in Finance Bi-Annually, ASERS Publishing, vol. 0(2), pages 131-137, December.
- Anders Johansen & Didier Sornette & Olivier Ledoit, 1999. "Empirical and Theoretical Status of Discrete Scale Invariance in Financial Crashes," Finance 9903006, EconWPA.
- Hendrik J. Blok, 2000. "On the nature of the stock market: Simulations and experiments," Papers cond-mat/0010211, arXiv.org.
- M. Ausloos & K. Ivanova & N. Vandewalle, 2001. "Crashes : symptoms, diagnoses and remedies," Papers cond-mat/0104127, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2001.
- Fry, J. M., 2010. "Gaussian and non-Gaussian models for financial bubbles via econophysics," MPRA Paper 27307, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.