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Isotonic Recalibration under a Low Signal-to-Noise Ratio

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  • Mario V. Wuthrich
  • Johanna Ziegel

Abstract

Insurance pricing systems should fulfill the auto-calibration property to ensure that there is no systematic cross-financing between different price cohorts. Often, regression models are not auto-calibrated. We propose to apply isotonic recalibration to a given regression model to ensure auto-calibration. Our main result proves that under a low signal-to-noise ratio, this isotonic recalibration step leads to explainable pricing systems because the resulting isotonically recalibrated regression functions have a low complexity.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario V. Wuthrich & Johanna Ziegel, 2023. "Isotonic Recalibration under a Low Signal-to-Noise Ratio," Papers 2301.02692, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2301.02692
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michel Denuit & Arthur Charpentier & Julien Trufin, 2021. "Autocalibration and Tweedie-dominance for Insurance Pricing with Machine Learning," Papers 2103.03635, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    2. Denuit, Michel & Charpentier, Arthur & Trufin, Julien, 2021. "Autocalibration and Tweedie-dominance for insurance pricing with machine learning," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(PB), pages 485-497.
    3. Alexander Henzi & Johanna F. Ziegel & Tilmann Gneiting, 2021. "Isotonic distributional regression," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 83(5), pages 963-993, November.
    4. Denuit, Michel & Charpentier , Arthur & Trufin, Julien, 2021. "Autocalibration and Tweedie-dominance for insurance pricing with machine learning," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2021049, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    5. Fabian Krüger & Johanna F. Ziegel, 2021. "Generic Conditions for Forecast Dominance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 972-983, October.
    6. Patton, Andrew J., 2011. "Volatility forecast comparison using imperfect volatility proxies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 246-256, January.
    7. Timo Dimitriadis & Lutz Duembgen & Alexander Henzi & Marius Puke & Johanna Ziegel, 2022. "Honest calibration assessment for binary outcome predictions," Papers 2203.04065, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    8. Gneiting, Tilmann, 2011. "Making and Evaluating Point Forecasts," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 106(494), pages 746-762.
    9. Denuit, Michel & Charpentier, Arthur & Trufin, Julien, 2021. "Autocalibration and Tweedie-dominance for insurance pricing with machine learning," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2021013, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    10. J. Kruskal, 1964. "Nonmetric multidimensional scaling: A numerical method," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 29(2), pages 115-129, June.
    11. de Leeuw, Jan & Hornik, Kurt & Mair, Patrick, 2009. "Isotone Optimization in R: Pool-Adjacent-Violators Algorithm (PAVA) and Active Set Methods," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 32(i05).
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