IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2206.13012.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

u^* = \sqrt{uv}

Author

Listed:
  • Pascal Michaillat
  • Emmanuel Saez

Abstract

Most governments are mandated to maintain their economies at full employment. We propose that the best marker of full employment is the efficient unemployment rate, $u^*$. We define $u^*$ as the unemployment rate that minimizes the nonproductive use of labor -- both jobseeking and recruiting. The nonproductive use of labor is well measured by the number of jobseekers and vacancies, $u + v$. Through the Beveridge curve, the number of vacancies is inversely related to the number of jobseekers. With such symmetry, the labor market is efficient when there are as many jobseekers as vacancies ($u = v$), too tight when there are more vacancies than jobseekers ($v > u$), and too slack when there are more jobseekers than vacancies ($u > v$). Accordingly, the efficient unemployment rate is the geometric average of the unemployment and vacancy rates: $u^* = \sqrt{uv}$. We compute $u^*$ for the United States between 1930 and 2022. We find for instance that the US labor market has been over full employment ($u

Suggested Citation

  • Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2022. "u^* = \sqrt{uv}," Papers 2206.13012, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2206.13012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2206.13012
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, December.
    2. Federico Ravenna & Carl E. Walsh, 2011. "Welfare-Based Optimal Monetary Policy with Unemployment and Sticky Prices: A Linear-Quadratic Framework," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 130-162, April.
    3. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    4. Olivier Coibion, 2012. "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks Big or Small?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-32, April.
    5. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    6. Barnichon, Regis, 2010. "Building a composite Help-Wanted Index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 175-178, December.
    7. Pascal Michaillat, 2012. "Do Matching Frictions Explain Unemployment? Not in Bad Times," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1721-1750, June.
    8. Mark Borgschulte & Paco Martorell, 2018. "Paying to Avoid Recession: Using Reenlistment to Estimate the Cost of Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 101-127, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2022. "An economical business-cycle model [Breaking through the zero lower bound]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(2), pages 382-411.
    2. Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2015. "Aggregate Demand, Idle Time, and Unemployment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(2), pages 507-569.
    3. Camille Landais & Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2018. "A Macroeconomic Approach to Optimal Unemployment Insurance: Applications," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 182-216, May.
    4. Michaillat, Pascal & Saez, Emmanuel, 2019. "Beveridgean Unemployment Gap," CEPR Discussion Papers 14132, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Oscar Jorda & Alan Taylor & Sanjay Singh, 2019. "The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy," 2019 Meeting Papers 1307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Francesco Furlanetto & Nicolas Groshenny, 2012. "Matching efficiency and business cycle fluctuations," Working Paper 2012/07, Norges Bank.
    7. Francesco Furlanetto & Nicolas Groshenny, 2016. "Mismatch Shocks and Unemployment During the Great Recession," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1197-1214, November.
    8. Francesco Furlanetto & Nicolas Groshenny, "undated". "Mismatch Shocks and Unemployment During the Great Recession," School of Economics Working Papers 2015-14, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
    9. Tang, Jenn-Hong, 2010. "Optimal monetary policy in a new Keynesian model with job search," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 330-353, March.
    10. Kohlbrecher, Britta, 2019. "The (ir)relevance of real wage rigidity for optimal monetary policy," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 07/2019, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    11. William D. Craighead, 2019. "Hysteresis In A New Keynesian Model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 1082-1097, April.
    12. Kohlbrecher, Britta, 2016. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Rigid Wages and Decreasing Returns," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145867, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Stefan Laséen & Andrea Pescatori, 2020. "Financial stability and interest‐rate policy: A quantitative assessment of costs and benefit," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(3), pages 1246-1273, August.
    14. Feng Dong, 2023. "Aggregate Implications of Financial Frictions for Unemployment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 45-71, April.
    15. Antonella Trigari, 2006. "The Role of Search Frictions and Bargaining for Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 304, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    16. Koenig, Felix & Manning, Alan & Petrongolo, Barbara, 2014. "Reservation wages and the wage flexibility puzzle," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 60613, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Bruno Crépon & Esther Duflo & Marc Gurgand & Roland Rathelot & Philippe Zamora, 2013. "Do Labor Market Policies have Displacement Effects? Evidence from a Clustered Randomized Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(2), pages 531-580.
    18. Kohlbrecher, Britta & Merkl, Christian & Nordmeier, Daniela, 2016. "Revisiting the matching function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 350-374.
    19. Kim, Myunghyun & Song, Sang-yoon, 2022. "The effects of monetary policy on consumption: Workers vs. retirees," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    20. Gottfries, Nils & Stadin, Karolina, 2016. "The Matching Process:Search Or Mismatch?," Working Paper Series 2016:14, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2206.13012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.