IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2108.11755.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Market Crash Prediction Model for Markets in A Rational Bubble

Author

Listed:
  • HyeonJun Kim

Abstract

Renowned method of log-periodic power law(LPPL) is one of the few ways that a financial market crash could be predicted. Alongside with LPPL, this paper propose a novel method of stock market crash using white box model derived from simple assumptions about the state of rational bubble. By applying this model to Dow Jones Index and Bitcoin market price data, it is shown that the model successfully predicts some major crashes of both markets, implying the high sensitivity and generalization abilities of the model.

Suggested Citation

  • HyeonJun Kim, 2021. "Market Crash Prediction Model for Markets in A Rational Bubble," Papers 2108.11755, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2108.11755
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2108.11755
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ide, Kayo & Sornette, Didier, 2002. "Oscillatory finite-time singularities in finance, population and rupture," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 307(1), pages 63-106.
    2. Wanfeng Yan & Ryan Woodard & Didier Sornette, 2010. "Diagnosis and Prediction of Tipping Points in Financial Markets: Crashes and Rebounds," Papers 1001.0265, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2010.
    3. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "The Theory of Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(392), pages 746-754, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Song, Ruiqiang & Shu, Min & Zhu, Wei, 2022. "The 2020 global stock market crash: Endogenous or exogenous?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 585(C).
    2. Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Yan, Wanfeng & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2013. "Clarifications to questions and criticisms on the Johansen–Ledoit–Sornette financial bubble model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4417-4428.
    3. Min Shu & Ruiqiang Song & Wei Zhu, 2021. "The 'COVID' Crash of the 2020 U.S. Stock Market," Papers 2101.03625, arXiv.org.
    4. Ruiqiang Song & Min Shu & Wei Zhu, 2021. "The 2020 Global Stock Market Crash: Endogenous or Exogenous?," Papers 2101.00327, arXiv.org.
    5. Shu, Min & Song, Ruiqiang & Zhu, Wei, 2021. "The ‘COVID’ crash of the 2020 U.S. Stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    6. Leonidas Sandoval Junior & Italo De Paula Franca, 2011. "Shocks in financial markets, price expectation, and damped harmonic oscillators," Papers 1103.1992, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2011.
    7. Hirano, Tomohiro & Inaba, Masaru & Yanagawa, Noriyuki, 2015. "Asset bubbles and bailouts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(S), pages 71-89.
    8. Uribe, Jorge & Fernández, Julián, 2014. "Burbujas financieras y comportamiento reciente de los mercados de acciones en América Latina," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 81, pages 57-90, April.
    9. Escobari, Diego & Garcia, Sergio & Mellado, Cristhian, 2017. "Identifying bubbles in Latin American equity markets: Phillips-Perron-based tests and linkages," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 90-101.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/74362fq3f99s299n07e84dlcib is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Horváth, Lajos & Li, Hemei & Liu, Zhenya, 2022. "How to identify the different phases of stock market bubbles statistically?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    12. James Payne & George Waters, 2007. "Have Equity REITs Experienced Periodically Collapsing Bubbles?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 207-224, February.
    13. Areal, Francisco José & Balcombe, Kevin & Rapsomanikis, George, 2016. "Testing for bubbles in agriculture commodity markets," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 16(01), June.
    14. Pavlidis, Efthymios & Martínez-García, Enrique & Grossman, Valerie, 2019. "Detecting periods of exuberance: A look at the role of aggregation with an application to house prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 87-102.
    15. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei & Wu, An-Chi, 2019. "Asymmetric adjustment, non-linearity and housing price bubbles: New international evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    16. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Xie, Zixiong, 2017. "Asymmetric adjustment and smooth breaks in dividend yields: Evidence from international stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 339-354.
    17. L. Lin & M. Schatz & D. Sornette, 2019. "A simple mechanism for financial bubbles: time-varying momentum horizon," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(6), pages 937-959, June.
    18. Charemza, Wojciech W. & Lifshits, Mikhail & Makarova, Svetlana, 2005. "Conditional testing for unit-root bilinearity in financial time series: some theoretical and empirical results," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 63-96, January.
    19. Ralph Chami & Thomas F. Cosimano & Connel Fullenkamp, 2001. "Capital Trading, Stock Trading, and the Inflation Tax on Equity," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(3), pages 575-606, July.
    20. Marco Airaudo, 2017. "Complex stock price dynamics under Max Weber’s spirit of capitalism hypothesis," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(1), pages 47-73, June.
    21. Karyotis, Catherine & Alijani, Sharam, 2016. "Soft commodities and the global financial crisis: Implications for the economy, resources and institutions," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 350-359.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2108.11755. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.