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While Stability Lasts: A Stochastic Model of Non-Custodial Stablecoins

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  • Ariah Klages-Mundt
  • Andreea Minca

Abstract

The `Black Thursday' crisis in cryptocurrency markets demonstrated deleveraging risks in over-collateralized non-custodial stablecoins. We develop a stochastic model that helps explain deleveraging crises in these over-collateralized systems. In our model, the stablecoin supply is decided by speculators who optimize the profitability of a leveraged position while incorporating the forward-looking cost of collateral liquidations, which involves the endogenous price of the stablecoin. We formally characterize regimes that are interpreted as stable and unstable for the stablecoin. We prove bounds on quadratic variation and the probability of large deviations in the stable domain and we demonstrate distinctly greater price variance in the unstable domain. We identify a deflationary deleveraging spiral by means of a submartingale. These deleveraging spirals, which resemble short squeezes, lead to faster collateral drawdown (and potential shortfalls) and are accompanied by higher price variance, as experienced on Black Thursday. We conclude by discussing non-custodial ways in which the issues raised in this paper can be mitigated.

Suggested Citation

  • Ariah Klages-Mundt & Andreea Minca, 2020. "While Stability Lasts: A Stochastic Model of Non-Custodial Stablecoins," Papers 2004.01304, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2004.01304
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bullmann, Dirk & Klemm, Jonas & Pinna, Andrea, 2019. "In search for stability in crypto-assets: are stablecoins the solution?," Occasional Paper Series 230, European Central Bank.
    2. Bruno Biais & Christophe Bisière & Matthieu Bouvard & Catherine Casamatta, 2019. "The Blockchain Folk Theorem," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(5), pages 1662-1715.
    3. Tarun Chitra, 2019. "Competitive equilibria between staking and on-chain lending," Papers 2001.00919, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2020.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sam M. Werner & Daniel Perez & Lewis Gudgeon & Ariah Klages-Mundt & Dominik Harz & William J. Knottenbelt, 2021. "SoK: Decentralized Finance (DeFi)," Papers 2101.08778, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    2. Ariah Klages-Mundt & Steffen Schuldenzucker, 2022. "Designing Autonomous Markets for Stablecoin Monetary Policy," Papers 2212.12398, arXiv.org.
    3. Matthias Hafner & Marco Henriques Pereira & Helmut Dietl & Juan Beccuti, 2023. "The four types of stablecoins: A comparative analysis," Papers 2308.07041, arXiv.org.
    4. Kaihua Qin & Jens Ernstberger & Liyi Zhou & Philipp Jovanovic & Arthur Gervais, 2023. "Mitigating Decentralized Finance Liquidations with Reversible Call Options," Papers 2303.15162, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.

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