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Consistent Time-Homogeneous Modeling of SPX and VIX Derivatives

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  • Andrew Papanicolaou

Abstract

This paper shows how to recover a stochastic volatility model (SVM) from a market model of the VIX futures term structure. Market models have more flexibility for fitting of curves than do SVMs, and therefore are better suited for pricing VIX futures and VIX derivatives. But the VIX itself is a derivative of the S&P500 (SPX) and it is common practice to price SPX derivatives using an SVM. Therefore, consistent modeling for both SPX and VIX should involve an SVM that can be obtained by inverting the market model. This paper's main result is a method for the recovery of a stochastic volatility function by solving an inverse problem where the input is the VIX function given by a market model. Analysis will show conditions necessary for there to be a unique solution to this inverse problem. The models are consistent if the recovered volatility function is non-negative. Examples are presented to illustrate the theory, to highlight the issue of negativity in solutions, and to show the potential for inconsistency in non-Markov settings.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Papanicolaou, 2018. "Consistent Time-Homogeneous Modeling of SPX and VIX Derivatives," Papers 1812.05859, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1812.05859
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Andrew Papanicolaou & Ronnie Sircar, 2014. "A regime-switching Heston model for VIX and S&P 500 implied volatilities," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(10), pages 1811-1827, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro Bondi & Sergio Pulido & Simone Scotti, 2022. "The rough Hawkes Heston stochastic volatility model," Working Papers hal-03827332, HAL.
    2. Ying-Li Wang & Cheng-Long Xu & Ping He, 2023. "A Markovian empirical model for the VIX index and the pricing of the corresponding derivatives," Papers 2309.08175, arXiv.org.
    3. Alessandro Bondi & Sergio Pulido & Simone Scotti, 2022. "The rough Hawkes Heston stochastic volatility model," Papers 2210.12393, arXiv.org.

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