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An ontological investigation of unimaginable events

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  • Thomas Santoli
  • Christoph Siebenbrunner

Abstract

We show that, under mild assumptions, some unimaginable events - which we refer to as Black Swan events - must necessarily occur. It follows as a corollary of our theorem that any computational model of decision-making under uncertainty is incomplete in the sense that not all events that occur can be taken into account. In the context of decision theory we argue that this constitutes a stronger sense of uncertainty than Knightian uncertainty.

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  • Thomas Santoli & Christoph Siebenbrunner, 2018. "An ontological investigation of unimaginable events," Papers 1803.02570, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1803.02570
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mr. Christian Schmieder & Mr. Tidiane Kinda & Mr. Nassim N. Taleb & Ms. Elena Loukoianova & Mr. Elie Canetti, 2012. "A New Heuristic Measure of Fragility and Tail Risks: Application to Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 2012/216, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Hilal, Sawsan & Poon, Ser-Huang & Tawn, Jonathan, 2011. "Hedging the black swan: Conditional heteroskedasticity and tail dependence in S&P500 and VIX," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2374-2387, September.
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