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Quantile Estimation of Optimal Hedge Ratio

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  • Donald Lien
  • Keshab Shrestha
  • Jing Wu

Abstract

In this study, we analyze the dependence of hedging effectiveness on the realization of spot return by introducing the concept of a quantile hedge ratio. We estimate quantile hedge ratios for 20 different commodities at 15 quantiles. For daily data, we find that the quantile hedge ratio varies with the spot return distribution, displaying an inverted‐U relationship such that the quantile hedge ratios are generally smaller at the upper and lower tails of the spot distribution. The severity of these characteristics differs across commodities. However, for weekly and four‐weekly data, these characteristics are less prominent. Thus, the conventional hedge ratio would be appropriate for longer horizons, but not for shorter horizons. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 36:194–214, 2016

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  • Donald Lien & Keshab Shrestha & Jing Wu, 2016. "Quantile Estimation of Optimal Hedge Ratio," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 194-214, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:36:y:2016:i:2:p:194-214
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert, 2018. "The effect of the rebalancing horizon on the tradeoff between hedging effectiveness and transaction costs," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 282-298.
    3. Gu, Yimiao & Chen, Zhenxi & Lien, Donald & Luo, Meifeng, 2020. "Quantile hedge ratio for forward freight market," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    4. Shrestha, Keshab & Subramaniam, Ravichandran & Peranginangin, Yessy & Philip, Sheena Sara Suresh, 2018. "Quantile hedge ratio for energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 253-272.
    5. Donald Lien & Ziling Wang & Xiaojian Yu, 2021. "Quantile information share under Markov regime‐switching," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 493-513, April.
    6. Makkonen, Adam & Vallström, Daniel & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Rahman, Md Lutfur & Haddad, Michel Ferreira Cardia, 2021. "The effect of temperature anomaly and macroeconomic fundamentals on agricultural commodity futures returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    7. Xia, Kun & Yang, Xuewei & Zhu, Peng, 2023. "Delta hedging and volatility-price elasticity: A two-step approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    8. Donald Lien & Ziling Wang & Xiaojian Yu, 2021. "Optimal quantile hedging under Markov regime switching," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(5), pages 2177-2201, May.
    9. Xianling Ren & Xinping Yu, 2024. "Hedging performance analysis of energy markets: Evidence from copula quantile regression," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 432-450, March.

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