IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1611.05518.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Robust Trading of Implied Skew

Author

Listed:
  • Sergey Nadtochiy
  • Jan Obloj

Abstract

In this paper, we present a method for constructing a (static) portfolio of co-maturing European options whose price sign is determined by the skewness level of the associated implied volatility. This property holds regardless of the validity of a specific model - i.e. the method is robust. The strategy is given explicitly and depends only on beliefs about the future values of implied skewness, which is an observable market indicator. As such, our method allows to use the existing statistical tools to formulate the beliefs, providing a practical interpretation of the more abstract mathematical setting, in which the belies are understood as a family of probability measures. One of the applications of our results is a method for trading views on the future changes in implied skew, largely independently of other market factors. Another application provides a concrete improvement of the existing model-independent super- and sub- replication strategies for barrier options, which exploits a given set of beliefs on the implied skew. Our theoretical results are tested empirically, using the historical prices of SP500 options.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergey Nadtochiy & Jan Obloj, 2016. "Robust Trading of Implied Skew," Papers 1611.05518, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1611.05518
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1611.05518
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. David G. Hobson, 1998. "Robust hedging of the lookback option," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 329-347.
    3. Jan Obłój & Frédérik Ulmer, 2012. "Performance Of Robust Hedges For Digital Double Barrier Options," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Matheus R Grasselli & Lane P Hughston (ed.), Finance at Fields, chapter 23, pages 521-554, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Peter Carr & Sergey Nadtochiy, 2017. "Local Variance Gamma And Explicit Calibration To Option Prices," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 151-193, January.
    5. René Carmona & Sergey Nadtochiy, 2012. "Tangent Lévy market models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 63-104, January.
    6. Matteo Burzoni & Marco Frittelli & Marco Maggis, 2016. "Universal arbitrage aggregator in discrete-time markets under uncertainty," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 1-50, January.
    7. Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-651, October.
    8. Alexander Cox & Jan Obłój, 2011. "Robust pricing and hedging of double no-touch options," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 573-605, September.
    9. Gurdip Bakshi & Nikunj Kapadia & Dilip Madan, 2003. "Stock Return Characteristics, Skew Laws, and the Differential Pricing of Individual Equity Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(1), pages 101-143.
    10. Mathias Beiglbock & Pierre Henry-Labord`ere & Friedrich Penkner, 2011. "Model-independent Bounds for Option Prices: A Mass Transport Approach," Papers 1106.5929, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2013.
    11. René Carmona & Sergey Nadtochiy, 2009. "Local volatility dynamic models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-48, January.
    12. Mark Davis & Jan Obłój & Vimal Raval, 2014. "Arbitrage Bounds For Prices Of Weighted Variance Swaps," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 821-854, October.
    13. Erhan Bayraktar & Sergey Nadtochiy, 2013. "Weak reflection principle for L\'evy processes," Papers 1308.2250, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2015.
    14. Haydyn Brown & David Hobson & L. C. G. Rogers, 2001. "Robust Hedging of Barrier Options," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 285-314, July.
    15. Jan Obłój & Frédérik Ulmer, 2012. "Performance Of Robust Hedges For Digital Double Barrier Options," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(01), pages 1-34.
    16. B. Acciaio & M. Beiglböck & F. Penkner & W. Schachermayer, 2016. "A Model-Free Version Of The Fundamental Theorem Of Asset Pricing And The Super-Replication Theorem," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 233-251, April.
    17. René Carmona & Sergey Nadtochiy, 2011. "Tangent Models As A Mathematical Framework For Dynamic Calibration," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(01), pages 107-135.
    18. Bali, Turan G. & Murray, Scott, 2013. "Does Risk-Neutral Skewness Predict the Cross-Section of Equity Option Portfolio Returns?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(4), pages 1145-1171, August.
    19. Mark H. A. Davis & David G. Hobson, 2007. "The Range Of Traded Option Prices," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 1-14, January.
    20. Bruno Bouchard & Marcel Nutz, 2013. "Arbitrage and duality in nondominated discrete-time models," Papers 1305.6008, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2015.
    21. Mathias Beiglböck & Pierre Henry-Labordère & Friedrich Penkner, 2013. "Model-independent bounds for option prices—a mass transport approach," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 477-501, July.
    22. M. Avellaneda & A. Levy & A. ParAS, 1995. "Pricing and hedging derivative securities in markets with uncertain volatilities," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 73-88.
    23. Alexander M. G. Cox & Jiajie Wang, 2011. "Root's barrier: Construction, optimality and applications to variance options," Papers 1104.3583, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2013.
    24. Matteo Burzoni & Marco Frittelli & Marco Maggis, 2016. "Universal arbitrage aggregator in discrete-time markets under uncertainty," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 1-50, January.
    25. Martin Schweizer & Johannes Wissel, 2008. "Term Structures Of Implied Volatilities: Absence Of Arbitrage And Existence Results," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 77-114, January.
    26. T. J. Lyons, 1995. "Uncertain volatility and the risk-free synthesis of derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 117-133.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sergey Nadtochiy & Jan Obłój, 2017. "Robust Trading Of Implied Skew," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(02), pages 1-41, March.
    2. Zhaoxu Hou & Jan Obłój, 2018. "Robust pricing–hedging dualities in continuous time," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 511-567, July.
    3. Sebastian Herrmann & Johannes Muhle-Karbe, 2017. "Model uncertainty, recalibration, and the emergence of delta–vega hedging," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 873-930, October.
    4. Matteo Burzoni & Marco Frittelli & Zhaoxu Hou & Marco Maggis & Jan Ob{l}'oj, 2016. "Pointwise Arbitrage Pricing Theory in Discrete Time," Papers 1612.07618, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2018.
    5. Matteo Burzoni & Marco Frittelli & Zhaoxu Hou & Marco Maggis & Jan Obłój, 2019. "Pointwise Arbitrage Pricing Theory in Discrete Time," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 44(3), pages 1034-1057, August.
    6. Sebastian Herrmann & Johannes Muhle-Karbe, 2017. "Model Uncertainty, Recalibration, and the Emergence of Delta-Vega Hedging," Papers 1704.04524, arXiv.org.
    7. Sergey Badikov & Mark H. A. Davis & Antoine Jacquier, 2018. "Perturbation analysis of sub/super hedging problems," Papers 1806.03543, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
    8. Alessandro Doldi & Marco Frittelli, 2020. "Entropy Martingale Optimal Transport and Nonlinear Pricing-Hedging Duality," Papers 2005.12572, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    9. Sergey Badikov & Mark H.A. Davis & Antoine Jacquier, 2021. "Perturbation analysis of sub/super hedging problems," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 1240-1274, October.
    10. Huy N. Chau, 2020. "On robust fundamental theorems of asset pricing in discrete time," Papers 2007.02553, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    11. Sebastian Herrmann & Johannes Muhle-Karbe & Frank Thomas Seifried, 2016. "Hedging with Small Uncertainty Aversion," Papers 1605.06429, arXiv.org.
    12. David Hobson & Anthony Neuberger, 2016. "On the value of being American," Papers 1604.02269, arXiv.org.
    13. Anna Aksamit & Zhaoxu Hou & Jan Obl'oj, 2016. "Robust framework for quantifying the value of information in pricing and hedging," Papers 1605.02539, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2018.
    14. Erhan Bayraktar & Shuoqing Deng & Dominykas Norgilas, 2023. "Supermartingale Brenier’s Theorem with Full-Marginal Constraint," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Robert A Jarrow & Dilip B Madan (ed.), Peter Carr Gedenkschrift Research Advances in Mathematical Finance, chapter 17, pages 569-636, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Mathias Beiglbock & Marcel Nutz & Florian Stebegg, 2019. "Fine Properties of the Optimal Skorokhod Embedding Problem," Papers 1903.03887, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2020.
    16. Huy N. Chau & Masaaki Fukasawa & Miklos Rasonyi, 2021. "Super-replication with transaction costs under model uncertainty for continuous processes," Papers 2102.02298, arXiv.org.
    17. Ariel Neufeld & Antonis Papapantoleon & Qikun Xiang, 2023. "Model-Free Bounds for Multi-Asset Options Using Option-Implied Information and Their Exact Computation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(4), pages 2051-2068, April.
    18. David Hobson & Anthony Neuberger, 2017. "Model uncertainty and the pricing of American options," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 285-329, January.
    19. Pierre Henry-Labordère & Nizar Touzi, 2016. "An explicit martingale version of the one-dimensional Brenier theorem," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 635-668, July.
    20. Johannes Muhle-Karbe & Marcel Nutz, 2018. "A risk-neutral equilibrium leading to uncertain volatility pricing," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 281-295, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1611.05518. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.