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Which measure for PFE? The Risk Appetite Measure, A

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  • Chris Kenyon
  • Andrew Green
  • Mourad Berrahoui

Abstract

Potential Future Exposure (PFE) is a standard risk metric for managing business unit counterparty credit risk but there is debate on how it should be calculated. The debate has been whether to use one of many historical ("physical") measures (one per calibration setup), or one of many risk-neutral measures (one per numeraire). However, we argue that limits should be based on the bank's own risk appetite provided that this is consistent with regulatory backtesting and that whichever measure is used it should behave (in a sense made precise) like a historical measure. Backtesting is only required by regulators for banks with IMM approval but we expect that similar methods are part of limit maintenance generally. We provide three methods for computing the bank price of risk from readily available business unit data, i.e. business unit budgets (rate of return) and limits (e.g. exposure percentiles). Hence we define and propose a Risk Appetite Measure, A, for PFE and suggest that this is uniquely consistent with the bank's Risk Appetite Framework as required by sound governance.

Suggested Citation

  • Chris Kenyon & Andrew Green & Mourad Berrahoui, 2015. "Which measure for PFE? The Risk Appetite Measure, A," Papers 1512.06247, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1512.06247
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    2. Stanton, Richard, 1997. "A Nonparametric Model of Term Structure Dynamics and the Market Price of Interest Rate Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1973-2002, December.
    3. Andrew Green & Chris Kenyon, 2014. "KVA: Capital Valuation Adjustment," Papers 1405.0515, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2014.
    4. Bondarenko, Oleg, 2014. "Variance trading and market price of variance risk," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 81-97.
    5. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcel T. P. Van Dijk & Cornelis S. L. De Graaf & Cornelis W. Oosterlee, 2018. "Between ℙ and ℚ: The ℙ ℚ Measure for Pricing in Asset Liability Management," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-23, October.
    2. Andrew Lesniewski & Anja Richter, 2016. "Managing counterparty credit risk via BSDEs," Papers 1608.03237, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2016.
    3. Chris Kenyon & Mourad Berrahoui & Benjamin Poncet, 2017. "Counterparty Trading Limits Revisited:CSAs, IM, SwapAgent(r), from PFE to PFL," Papers 1710.03161, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2018.
    4. Ruitao Gu & Qiaoyun Zhang & Wei Zhou & Jianxu Liu, 2022. "Judging the True Health of Finance Institutions Based on Risk Behavior and Operation Performance," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2022, pages 1-21, November.

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