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Modeling of Stock Returns and Trading Volume

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  • Taisei Kaizoji
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    Abstract

    In this study, we investigate the statistical properties of the returns and the trading volume. We show a typical example of power-law distributions of the return and of the trading volume. Next, we propose an interacting agent model of stock markets inspired from statistical mechanics [24] to explore the empirical findings. We show that as the interaction among the interacting traders strengthens both the returns and the trading volume present power-law behavior.

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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1309.2416
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1309.2416.

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    Date of creation: Sep 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1309.2416

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    1. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(01), pages 109-126, March.
    2. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 59-82, Winter.
    3. Kaizoji, Taisei, 2000. "Speculative bubbles and crashes in stock markets: an interacting-agent model of speculative activity," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 287(3), pages 493-506.
    4. Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-53, December.
    5. John Y. Campbell & Sanford J. Grossman & Jiang Wang, 1992. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 4193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam & Lipson, Marc L, 1994. "Transactions, Volume, and Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 631-51.
    7. Copeland, Thomas E, 1976. "A Model of Asset Trading under the Assumption of Sequential Information Arrival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1149-68, September.
    8. Kaizoji, Taisei, 2001. "A model of international financial crises," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 279-293.
    9. Taisei Kaizoji & Michiyo Kaizoji, 2003. "Empirical Laws Of A Stock Price Index And A Stochastic Model," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(03), pages 303-312.
    10. Andrew W. Lo & Jiang W. Wang, 2000. "Trading Volume: Definitions, Data Analysis, and Implications of Portfolio Theory," NBER Working Papers 7625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Vasiliki Plerou & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Xavier Gabaix & H. Eugene Stanley, 2001. "Quantifying Stock Price Response to Demand Fluctuations," Papers cond-mat/0106657, arXiv.org.
    12. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    13. Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1992. "Stock Prices and Volume," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 199-242.
    14. Epps, Thomas W, 1975. "Security Price Changes and Transaction Volumes: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(4), pages 586-97, September.
    15. V. Plerou & P. Gopikrishnan & X. Gabaix & L. A. N. Amaral & H. E. Stanley, 2001. "Price fluctuations, market activity and trading volume," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 262-269.
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