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On the relation between forecast precision and trading profitability of financial analysts

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  • Carlo Marinelli
  • Alex Weissensteiner
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    Abstract

    We analyze the relation between earning forecast accuracy and expected profitability of financial analysts. Modeling forecast errors with a multivariate Gaussian distribution, a complete characterization of the payoff of each analyst is provided. In particular, closed-form expressions for the probability density function, for the expectation, and, more generally, for moments of all orders are obtained. Our analysis shows that the relationship between forecast precision and trading profitability need not to be monotonic, and that, for any analyst, the impact on his expected payoff of the correlation between his forecasts and those of the other market participants depends on the accuracy of his signals. Furthermore, our model accommodates a unique full-communication equilibrium in the sense of Radner (1979): if all information is reflected in the market price, then the expected payoff of all market participants is equal to zero.

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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1301.6638
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    Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1301.6638.

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    Date of creation: Jan 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1301.6638

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    1. Huber, Jurgen, 2007. "`J'-shaped returns to timing advantage in access to information - Experimental evidence and a tentative explanation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2536-2572, August.
    2. Bernhardt, Dan & Campello, Murillo & Kutsoati, Edward, 2006. "Who herds?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 657-675, June.
    3. Lamont, Owen A., 2002. "Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 265-280, July.
    4. Huber, Jurgen & Kirchler, Michael & Sutter, Matthias, 2008. "Is more information always better: Experimental financial markets with cumulative information," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 86-104, January.
    5. John R. Graham, 1999. "Herding among Investment Newsletters: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 237-268, 02.
    6. Stickel, Scott E, 1992. " Reputation and Performance among Security Analysts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1811-36, December.
    7. Loh, Roger K. & Mian, G. Mujtaba, 2006. "Do accurate earnings forecasts facilitate superior investment recommendations?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 455-483, May.
    8. Alon Brav & J.B. Heaton, 2002. "Competing Theories of Financial Anomalies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 575-606, March.
    9. Roy Radner, 1997. "Rational Expectations Equilibrium: Generic Existence and the Information Revealed by Prices," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1594, David K. Levine.
    10. Stanimir Markov & Ane Tamayo, 2006. "Predictability in Financial Analyst Forecast Errors: Learning or Irrationality?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 725-761, 09.
    11. Radner, Roy, 1979. "Rational Expectations Equilibrium: Generic Existence and the Information Revealed by Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 655-78, May.
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