Non-Gaussianity of the Intraday Returns Distribution: its evolution in time
AbstractWe find a remarkable time persistence of various proxies for the kurtosis (p-kurtosis) of the intraday returns distribution for the S&P500 index and this permits a significant measure of their evolution from 1983 to 2004. There appears a long time scale dramatic variation of the p-kurtosis uncorrelated with the variation of the volatility thus falsifying any hypothesis of a universal shape for the probability distribution of the returns. A large increase in the kurtosis anticipates the October 87 crash. During the years 1991-2003 it continuously decreases even when the volatility grows during the dot-com bubble. We propose some speculative interpretations of these results.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1112.0770.
Date of creation: Dec 2011
Date of revision: Dec 2011
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Web page: http://arxiv.org/
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-12-13 (All new papers)
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