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A Consistent Model of `Explosive' Financial Bubbles With Mean-Reversing Residuals

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  • L. Lin
  • Ren R. E
  • D. Sornette
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    Abstract

    We present a self-consistent model for explosive financial bubbles, which combines a mean-reverting volatility process and a stochastic conditional return which reflects nonlinear positive feedbacks and continuous updates of the investors' beliefs and sentiments. The conditional expected returns exhibit faster-than-exponential acceleration decorated by accelerating oscillations, called "log-periodic power law." Tests on residuals show a remarkable low rate (0.2%) of false positives when applied to a GARCH benchmark. When tested on the S&P500 US index from Jan. 3, 1950 to Nov. 21, 2008, the model correctly identifies the bubbles ending in Oct. 1987, in Oct. 1997, in Aug. 1998 and the ITC bubble ending on the first quarter of 2000. Different unit-root tests confirm the high relevance of the model specification. Our model also provides a diagnostic for the duration of bubbles: applied to the period before Oct. 1987 crash, there is clear evidence that the bubble started at least 4 years earlier. We confirm the validity and universality of the volatility-confined LPPL model on seven other major bubbles that have occurred in the World in the last two decades. Using Bayesian inference, we find a very strong statistical preference for our model compared with a standard benchmark, in contradiction with Chang and Feigenbaum (2006) which used a unit-root model for residuals.

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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/0905.0128
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 0905.0128.

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    Date of creation: May 2009
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    Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0905.0128

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    Web page: http://arxiv.org/

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    1. George Chang & James Feigenbaum, 2006. "A Bayesian analysis of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 15-36.
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    Cited by:
    1. Jan Novotny, 2010. "Price Jumps in Visegrad Country Stock Markets: An Empirical Analysis," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp412, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
    2. Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Wei-Xing Zhou & D. Sornette & Ryan Woodard & Ken Bastiaensen & Peter Cauwels, . "Bubble Diagnosis and Prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles," Working Papers CCSS-09-008, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.

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