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Priors and the Slope of the Phillips Curve

Author

Listed:
  • Callum Jones

    (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)

  • Mariano Kulish

    (University of Sydney)

  • Juan Pablo Nicolini

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis/Universidad Di Tella)

Abstract

The slope of the Phillips curve in New Keynesian models is difficult to estimate using aggregate data. We show that in a Bayesian estimation, the priors placed on the parametersgoverning nominal rigidities significantly influence posterior estimates and thus inferences about the importance of nominal rigidities. Conversely, we show that priors play a negligible role in a New Keynesian model estimated using state-level data. An estimation with state-level data exploits a relatively large panel dataset and removes the influence of endogenous monetary policy

Suggested Citation

  • Callum Jones & Mariano Kulish & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2022. "Priors and the Slope of the Phillips Curve," Working Papers 165, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    • Handle: RePEc:aoz:wpaper:165
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    File URL: https://rednie.eco.unc.edu.ar/files/DT/165.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Terry J. Fitzgerald & Callum J. Jones & Mariano Kulish & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2020. "Is There a Stable Relationship between Unemployment and Future Inflation?," Staff Report 614, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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    5. Michael McLeay & Silvana Tenreyro, 2020. "Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(1), pages 199-255.
    6. Peter N. Ireland, 2004. "Technology Shocks in the New Keynesian Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 923-936, November.
    7. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank, 2008. "Forming priors for DSGE models (and how it affects the assessment of nominal rigidities)," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1191-1208, October.
    8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
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    12. Kulish, Mariano & Morley, James & Robinson, Tim, 2017. "Estimating DSGE models with zero interest rate policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 35-49.
    13. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Slope of the Phillips curve; priors; Bayesian estimation; state-level data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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