Multivariate GARCH models and Black-Litterman approach for tracking error constrained portfolios: an empirical analysis
AbstractIn a typical tactical asset allocation set up managers generally make their investment decisions by inserting private information in an optimisation mechanism used to beat a benchmark portfolio; in this context the sole approach a' la Markowitz (1959) does not use all the available information about expected excess return and especially it does not take two main factors into account: first, asset returns often show changes in volatility, and second, the manager's private information plays no role in the optimisation process. This paper provides an empirical work for large scale tactical asset allocation strategy in which a multivariate GARCH estimation is used in portfolio optimisation, given a tracking error constraint (Jorion, 2003). Moreover, the use of Black and Litterman (1991, 1992) approach allows for the possibility to tactically manage the selected portfolio through a very short time, combining informations taken from the time varying volatility model with some personal "view" about asset returns.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali in its series Working Papers with number 267.
Date of creation: Sep 2006
Date of revision:
Black and Litterman approach; multivariate GARCH models; tactical asset allocation;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-09-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2006-09-30 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2006-09-30 (Financial Markets)
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