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Multistep Predictions for Multivariate GARCH Models: Closed Form Solution and the Value for Portfolio Management

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  • Jaroslava HLOUSKOVA
  • Kurt SCHMIDHEINY
  • Martin WAGNER

Abstract

The missing wage rigidity in general equilibrium models of efficiency wages is an artifact of the external wage reference perspective conventionally adopted by the literature. Efficiency wage models based on an internal wage reference perspective are capable of generating strong wage rigidity. We propose a structural model of efficiency wages that is broadly consistent with the reported evidence on fairness in labor relations and rent-sharing. Our model provides a robust explanation for wage rigidity and procyclical effort. It also rationalizes reciprocal behavior by workers and the observation that firm productivity is a significant predictor of wage setting.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP in its series Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) with number 04.10.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:lau:crdeep:04.10

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Postal: Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP, Internef, CH-1015 Lausanne
Phone: ++41 21 692.33.64
Fax: ++41 21 692.33.05
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Web page: http://www.hec.unil.ch/deep/publications/cahiers/series
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Keywords: multivariate GARCH models; volatility forecasts; portfolio optimization; minimum variance portfolio;

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References

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  1. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  2. Nilsson, Birger, 2002. "International Asset Pricing and the Benefits from World Market Diversification," Working Papers 2002:1, Lund University, Department of Economics.
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  4. BAUWENS, Luc & LAURENT, Sébastien & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen, 2003. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," CORE Discussion Papers 2003031, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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  6. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2001. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-01, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  7. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  8. Li, W K & Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2002. " Recent Theoretical Results for Time Series Models with GARCH Errors," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 245-69, July.
  9. Menelaos Karanasos, . "Prediction in ARMA models with GARCH in Mean Effects," Discussion Papers 99/11, Department of Economics, University of York.
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  15. Baillie, R.T. & Bollerslev, R.T., 1990. "Prediction In Dynamic Models With Time Dependent Conditional Variances," Papers 8815, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  16. Baillie, Richard T., 1980. "Predictions from ARMAX models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 365-374, April.
  17. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
  18. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Haas, Markus, 2010. "Covariance forecasts and long-run correlations in a Markov-switching model for dynamic correlations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 86-97, June.
  2. Lahiri, Kajal & Liu, Fushang, 2005. "ARCH models for multi-period forecast uncertainty-a reality check using a panel of density forecasts," MPRA Paper 21693, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Francisco Rubio & Xavier Mestre & Daniel P. Palomar, 2011. "Performance analysis and optimal selection of large mean-variance portfolios under estimation risk," Papers 1110.3460, arXiv.org.

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