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Multistep Predictions for Multivariate GARCH Models: Closed Form Solution and the Value for Portfolio Management

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Author Info
Jaroslava HLOUSKOVA
Kurt SCHMIDHEINY
Martin WAGNER

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Abstract

The missing wage rigidity in general equilibrium models of efficiency wages is an artifact of the external wage reference perspective conventionally adopted by the literature. Efficiency wage models based on an internal wage reference perspective are capable of generating strong wage rigidity. We propose a structural model of efficiency wages that is broadly consistent with the reported evidence on fairness in labor relations and rent-sharing. Our model provides a robust explanation for wage rigidity and procyclical effort. It also rationalizes reciprocal behavior by workers and the observation that firm productivity is a significant predictor of wage setting.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP in its series Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) with number 04.10.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:lau:crdeep:04.10

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Postal: Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP, Internef, CH-1015 Lausanne
Phone: ++41 21 692.33.64
Fax: ++41 21 692.33.65
Web page: http://www.hec.unil.ch/deep/publications-english/e-cahiers.htm

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Related research
Keywords: multivariate GARCH models; volatility forecasts; portfolio optimization; minimum variance portfolio;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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  1. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Olivier Ledoit & Pedro Santa-Clara & Michael Wolf, 2003. "Flexible Multivariate GARCH Modeling with an Application to International Stock Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 735-747, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Drost, Feike C & Nijman, Theo E, 1993. "Temporal Aggregation of GARCH Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 909-27, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Zhuanxin Ding & Clive Granger & Robert Engle, 1992. "A Long Memory Property of Stock Market Returns and a New Model," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 92-21, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
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  7. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1992. "Prediction in dynamic models with time-dependent conditional variances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 91-113. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:1:p:122-50 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Nilsson, Birger, 2002. "International Asset Pricing and the Benefits from World Market Diversification," Working Papers 2002:1, Lund University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Ravi Jagannathan & Tongshu Ma, 2003. "Risk Reduction in Large Portfolios: Why Imposing the Wrong Constraints Helps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1651-1684, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Menelaos Karanasos, . "Prediction in ARMA models with GARCH in Mean Effects," Discussion Papers 99/11, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
  14. Jeff Fleming, 2001. "The Economic Value of Volatility Timing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 329-352, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Harvey, Andrew & Ruiz, Esther & Shephard, Neil, 1994. "Multivariate Stochastic Variance Models," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(2), pages 247-64, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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