IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/agz/wpaper/2008.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How to reduce Germany's current account surplus?

Author

Listed:
  • Jan Behringer

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Till van Treeck

    (Institute for Socio-Economics (ifso))

  • Achim Truger

    (Institute for Socio-Economics (ifso))

Abstract

Germany has had a large and persistent current account surplus for the past almost two decades. We review different theoretical explanations of this phenomenon and conclude from the empirical litera-ture that Germany’s external surplus reflects an imbalance that is a threat to macroeconomic stability at both the national and the international level. Interestingly, although intertemporal general equilibrium models highlight the role of private households in determining national current account positions, the increase in Germany’s external balance for the most part is the reflection of larger financial balances of the corporate sector and the government. While the share of the national income going to the private household sector has declined dramatically since the early 2000s, the corresponding increase in the income share of the private corporate sector and the government was not accompanied by higher spending by these sectors on goods and services as a percentage of GDP. We discuss how the exter-nal surplus might be reduced through (a combination of) higher public and private demand for goods and services and shorter working hours.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Behringer & Till van Treeck & Achim Truger, 2020. "How to reduce Germany's current account surplus?," Working Papers 8, Forum New Economy.
  • Handle: RePEc:agz:wpaper:2008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://newforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/FNE-WP08-2020.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2020
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2016. "The China Shock: Learning from Labor-Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 205-240, October.
    2. Drechsel-Grau, Moritz & Schmid, Kai D., 2014. "Consumption–savings decisions under upward-looking comparisons," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 254-268.
    3. Achim Truger & Katja Rietzler & Henner Will & Rudolf Zwiener, 2010. "Alternative Strategien der Budgetkonsolidierung in Österreich nach der Rezession," IMK Studies 02-2010, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    4. Michael Kumhof & Romain Rancière & Pablo Winant, 2015. "Inequality, Leverage, and Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1217-1245, March.
    5. Christian A Belabed & Thomas Theobald & Till van Treeck, 2018. "Income distribution and current account imbalances [Notes on capacity utilisation, distribution and accumulation]," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(1), pages 47-94.
    6. Jan Behringer & Till van Treeck, 2019. "Income Distribution and Growth Models: A Sectoral Balances Approach," Politics & Society, , vol. 47(3), pages 303-332, September.
    7. Jan Behringer & Till van Treeck, 2017. "Varieties of capitalism and growth regimes," FMM Working Paper 09-2017, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    8. Robert H. Frank, 2005. "Positional Externalities Cause Large and Preventable Welfare Losses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 137-141, May.
    9. Jan Behringer & Till van Treeck, 2023. "The corporate sector and the current account," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(3), pages 826-857.
    10. Emmanuel Saez & Gabriel Zucman, 2016. "Editor's Choice Wealth Inequality in the United States since 1913: Evidence from Capitalized Income Tax Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(2), pages 519-578.
    11. Eichenbaum, Martin & Parker, Jonathan A. (ed.), . "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226577838, July.
    12. Eckhard Hein & Arne Heise & Achim Truger (ed.), 2004. "Finanzpolitik in der Kontroverse," Conference proceedings of the Research Network Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Policies (FMM), IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute, volume 7, number 7-2004.
    13. Frederick Solt, 2020. "Measuring Income Inequality Across Countries and Over Time: The Standardized World Income Inequality Database," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 101(3), pages 1183-1199, May.
    14. Michael Kumhof & Romain Rancière & Pablo Winant, 2015. "Inequality, Leverage, and Crises," Post-Print halshs-01511070, HAL.
    15. Sarah Godar & Christoph Paetz & Achim Truger, 2015. "The scope for progressive tax reform in the OECD countries. A macroeconomic perspective with a case study for Germany," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 79-117.
    16. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2010. "Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9111.
    17. Martin Eichenbaum & Jonathan A. Parker, 2017. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016, Volume 31," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number eich-3, March.
    18. Jan Behringer & Thomas Theobald & Till van Treeck, 2014. "Income and Wealth Distributionin Germany: A Macro-Economic Perspective," IMK Report 99e-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    19. Gustav A. Horn & Torsten Niechoj & Silke Tober & Till van Treeck & Achim Truger, 2010. "Reforming the European Stability and Growth Pact: Public Debt is Not the Only Factor, Private Debt Counts as Well," IMK Report 51e-2010, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    20. Ruscher Eric & Wolff Guntram B., 2013. "Corporate Balance Sheet Adjustment: Stylized Facts, Causes and Consequences," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 64(2), pages 117-138, August.
    21. Sebastian Dullien & Mark Schieritz, 2011. "Die deutsche Investitionsschwäche: Die Mär von den Standortproblemen," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 91(7), pages 458-464, July.
    22. Behringer, Jan & van Treeck, Till, 2018. "Income distribution and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 238-254.
    23. Jan Behringer & Till van Treeck, 2018. "Varieties of capitalism and growth regimes: the role of income distribution," IMK Working Paper 194-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    24. Michael Pettis, 2013. "The Great Rebalancing: Trade, Conflict, and the Perilous Road Ahead for the World Economy," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 9936.
    25. Mr. Steven T Phillips & Mr. Luis Catão & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Mr. Rudolfs Bems & Ms. Mitali Das & Mr. Julian Di Giovanni & Ms. Filiz D Unsal & Marola Castillo & Jungjin Lee & Jair Rodriguez & Mr. Mauric, 2013. "The External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology," IMF Working Papers 2013/272, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Eichenbaum, Martin & Parker, Jonathan A. (ed.), . "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226490229, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Truger, Achim, 2021. "Wenig überzeugendes Sammelsurium wirtschaftspolitischer Forderungen," ifso expertise 14, University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute for Socioeconomics (ifso).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jan Behringer & Till van Treeck, 2018. "Revisiting debt-led and export-led growth models: a sectoral balances approach," IMK Working Paper 195-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    2. Jan Behringer & Till van Treeck & Achim Truger, 2020. "Das deutsche Modell: Wie kann der Leistungsbilanzüberschuss abgebaut werden?," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(10), pages 753-757, October.
    3. Till van Treeck & Judith Niehues & Galina Kolev & Piotr Pysz & Peter Hampe & Andreas Peichl & Marc Stöckli & Georg Cremer, 2018. "How Fair Is the World? – Social Inequality and Economic Growth," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(15), pages 03-25, August.
    4. Behringer, Jan & van Treeck, Till, 2018. "Income distribution and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 238-254.
    5. Rémi Bazillier & Jérôme Héricourt & Samuel Ligonnière, 2017. "Structure of Income Inequality and Household Leverage: Theory and Cross-Country Evidence," Working Papers 2017-01, CEPII research center.
    6. Schulz, Jan & Mayerhoffer, Daniel M., 2021. "A network approach to consumption," BERG Working Paper Series 173, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    7. Kiley, Michael T., 2021. "What macroeconomic conditions lead financial crises?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    8. Jan Behringer & Till van Treeck, 2013. "Income distribution and current account: A sectoral perspective," IMK Working Paper 125-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    9. Behringer, Jan & Endres, Lukas & van Treeck, Till, 2023. "Income inequality, household consumption and status competition in Germany," ifso working paper series 25, University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute for Socioeconomics (ifso).
    10. Jan Behringer & Till van Treeck, 2018. "Varieties of capitalism and growth regimes: the role of income distribution," IMK Working Paper 194-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    11. Thomas Hauner, 2020. "Aggregate wealth and its distribution as determinants of financial crises," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 18(3), pages 319-338, September.
    12. Philipp Poppitz, 2016. "Does self-perceptions and income inequality match?," IMK Working Paper 173-2016, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    13. Bazillier, Rémi & Héricourt, Jérôme & Ligonnière, Samuel, 2021. "Structure of income inequality and household leverage: Cross-country causal evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    14. Jan Behringer & Till van Treeck, 2017. "Varieties of capitalism and growth regimes," FMM Working Paper 09-2017, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    15. Thomas Fischer, 2017. "Can Redistribution by Means of a Progressive Labor Income-Taxation Transfer System Increase Financial Stability?," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 20(2), pages 1-3.
    16. Rémi Bazillier & Jérôme Hericourt, 2017. "The Circular Relationship Between Inequality, Leverage, And Financial Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 463-496, April.
    17. Campana, Juan Manuel & Emboava Vaz, João & Hein, Eckhard & Jungmann, Benjamin, 2022. "Demand and growth regimes of the BRICs countries," IPE Working Papers 197/2022, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    18. Stockhammer, Engelbert & Wildauer, Rafael, 2018. "Expenditure Cascades, Low Interest Rates or Property Booms? Determinants of Household Debt in OECD Countries," Review of Behavioral Economics, now publishers, vol. 5(2), pages 85-121, September.
    19. Jan Behringer, 2019. "Factor shares and the rise in corporate net lending," IMK Working Paper 202-2019, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    20. Patrick Grüning & Thomas Theobald & Till van Treeck, 2015. "Income inequality and Germany’s current account surplus," IMK Working Paper 147-2015, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    current account; external adjustment; sectoral balances; income distribution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D33 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Factor Income Distribution
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:agz:wpaper:2008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Xhulia Likaj (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/edagzus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.