A Behavioral Approach Towards Futures Contract Usage
AbstractWe propose a behavioral decision-making model to investigate what factors, observable as well as unobservable, owner-managers consider regarding futures contract usage. The conceptual model consists of two phases, reflecting the two-stage decision structure of manager’s use of futures. In the first phase owner-managers consider whether futures are within the market choice set for the enterprise. In the second phase the owner-manager decides whether or not to initiate a futures position when confronted with a concrete choice situation. In both phases owner-manager’s beliefs and perceptions play an important role. The proposed model is tested on a data set of Dutch farmers, based on computer-assisted personal interviews. Because we incorporate latent variables (e.g., perceptions and beliefs) in both phases, we propose an estimation procedure that takes the measurement error of these latent variables explicitly into account. The implications of the behavioral decision-making model for futures contract design are derived.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Wageningen University, Mansholt Graduate School of Social Sciences in its series Mansholt Working Papers with number 46448.
Date of creation: 2001
Date of revision:
hedging; futures; structural equation modeling; behavioral models; futures exchanges; choice models; farmers; Institutional and Behavioral Economics;
Other versions of this item:
- Pennings, Joost M E & Leuthold, Raymond M, 2001. "A Behavioural Approach towards Futures Contract Usage," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 461-78, December.
- Pennings, Joost M.E. & Leuthold, Raymond M., 2001. "A behavioural approach towards futures contract usage," Open Access publications from Maastricht University urn:nbn:nl:ui:27-13118, Maastricht University.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John W. Payne & Dan J. Laughhunn & Roy Crum, 1980. "Translation of Gambles and Aspiration Level Effects in Risky Choice Behavior," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(10), pages 1039-1060, October.
- Howard, Charles T. & D'Antonio, Louis J., 1984. "A Risk-Return Measure of Hedging Effectiveness," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(01), pages 101-112, March.
- Hartzmark, Michael L, 1987. "Returns to Individual Traders of Futures: Aggregate Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1292-1306, December.
- Pennings, Joost M.E. & Garcia, Philip, 2001. "Unobserved Heterogeneity: Evidence and Implications for SMEs' Hedging Behavior," 2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri 18955, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- Fershtman, C., 1993.
"On the Value of Incumbency Managerial Reference Point and loss Aversion,"
7-93, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
- Fershtman, Chaim, 1996. "On the value of incumbency managerial reference points and loss aversion," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 245-257, April.
- Chaim Fershtman, 1993. "On the Value of Incumbency: Managerial Reference Point and Loss Aversion," Discussion Papers 1020, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Daniel McFadden, 1998.
"Rationality for Economists?,"
98-09-086, Santa Fe Institute.
- Brandstatter, Hermann, 1997. "Becoming an entrepreneur -- A question of personality structure?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 18(2-3), pages 157-177, April.
- Tufano, Peter, 1996. " Who Manages Risk? An Empirical Examination of Risk Management Practices in the Gold Mining Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1097-1137, September.
- Joost M.E. Pennings & Raymond M. Leuthold, 2000. "The Role of Farmers' Behavioral Attitudes and Heterogeneity in Futures Contracts Usage," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(4), pages 908-919.
- Carter, Colin A., 1999. "Commodity futures markets: a survey," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 43(2).
- Kamel Jedidi & Harsharanjeet S. Jagpal & Wayne S. DeSarbo, 1997. "Finite-Mixture Structural Equation Models for Response-Based Segmentation and Unobserved Heterogeneity," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 16(1), pages 39-59.
- Johnston, Elizabeth Tashjian & McConnell, John J, 1989. "Requiem for a Market: An Analysis of the Rise and Fall of a Financial Futures Contract," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(1), pages 1-23.
- Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 1998. "Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1839-1885, December.
- Puto, Christopher P, 1987. " The Framing of Buying Decisions," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(3), pages 301-15, December.
- Ale Smidts, 1997. "The Relationship Between Risk Attitude and Strength of Preference: A Test of Intrinsic Risk Attitude," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(3), pages 357-370, March.
- Ryan, Michael J & Bonfield, E H, 1975. " The Fishbein Extended Model and Consumer Behavior," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(2), pages 118-36, Se.
- Peck, Anne E. & Nahmias, Antoinette M., 1989. "Hedging Your Advice: Do Portfolio Models Explain Hedging?," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, issue 02.
- Pennings, Joost M.E. & Isengildina, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Garcia, Philip & Frank, Julieta & Kuiper, W. Erno, 2005. "Complex Choices: Producers Risk Management Strategies," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19550, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.