Assessing the impacts of changing consumer behaviour patterns on our planetary boundaries

With a focus on two of the Sustainable Development Goals - halve global food waste and reduce food losses along the value chain as well as end all forms of hunger by 2030, the objective of this study is to investigate the potential impact of food waste and loss reduction and dietary changes on food security, emissions, land use change as well as water use. For this purpose, this study employs an advanced CGE neoclassical model known as the Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool (MAGNET). A biobased variant of the standard GTAP database consisting of numerous additional biobased activities splits (including waste and recycling) is used to enhance to analysis of the circularity of food waste reductions. To control the balance of food nutrients in the diet when changing consumer dietary patterns, we also include a nutrition module in MAGNET. In the case of food loss and waste, worldwide estimates of food waste rates classified into seven regions from the FAO are employed. In addition to a reference scenario to 2050, we simulate a set of additional scenarios. Comparing with this baseline, the first three scenarios will examine 30%, 40% and 50% reductions in food waste over the period 2020-2050. The second set of three scenarios will examine 30%, 40% and 50% reductions in red meat consumption in all regions, whilst maintaining the protein balance as in the baseline. Results will be presented with a focus on the key economic (output, household incomes), social (employment) and biophysical/environmental (emissions, water and land usage) indicators available in the MAGNET model.