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Volatility Persistence in Commodity Futures:Inventory and Time-to-Delivery Effects

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Author Info
Karali, Berna
Thurman, Walter N.
Abstract

Most financial asset returns exhibit volatility persistence. We investigate this phenomenon in the context of daily returns in commodity futures markets. We show that the time gap between the arrival of news to the markets and the delivery time of futures contracts is the fundamental variable in explaining volatility persistence in the lumber futures market. We also find an inverse relationship between inventory levels and lumber futures volatility.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management in its series 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri with number 37612.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ags:nccest:37612

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Related research
Keywords: volatility persistence; theory of storage; volatility; futures markets; lumber; Agricultural Finance;

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  1. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. "Intraday periodicity and volatility persistence in financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 115-158, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ng, Victor K & Pirrong, Stephen Craig, 1994. "Fundamentals and Volatility: Storage, Spreads, and the Dynamics of Metals Prices," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 203-30, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-26.


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