IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/iaaeo4/197429.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

International Economic Conditions, Trade Policies, Exchange Rates, and Balance of Payments and Their Influence on LDC Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas, Scott

Abstract

When the present value of the assets held by creditors ma firm is not fully recoverable within a reasonable time period, the firm is termed insolvent. Takmg net foreign exchange earnings as receipts and debt service payments as expenditures, this measure of solvency may be applied to the analysis of the creditworthiness of major debtor countries, with the modification that, for a country to be deemed solvent, a principal reschedulingcum- interest deferral scheme must not result (5 years later) in a significantly higher probabiltty of havtng to reschedule. Empirical analysis of several major debtor countries using this methodology leads to the conclusion that interest payments from some countries will not be recoverable (under any feasible scheme to retain the present' value of the debt) without persistent recession. Instead, the prospect for these countries is ltkely to be a pattern of chronic mability to meet debt service obligations and of stagnating or falling gross domestic product.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas, Scott, 1987. "International Economic Conditions, Trade Policies, Exchange Rates, and Balance of Payments and Their Influence on LDC Growth," 1987 Occasional Paper Series No. 4 197429, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaaeo4:197429
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.197429
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/197429/files/agecon-occpapers-1987-053_1_.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.197429?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Homi Kharas, 1984. "The Long-Run Creditworthiness of Developing Countries: Theory and Practice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(3), pages 415-439.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1991. "Fiscal Deficits, Exchange Rate Crises and Inflation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(1), pages 81-92.
    2. Epstien, Gerald & Gintis, Herbert, 1989. "International Capital Markets and the Limits of National Economic Policy," WIDER Working Papers 295606, United Nations University, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. John Cooper, 1999. "Artificial neural networks versus multivariate statistics: An application from economics," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(8), pages 909-921.
    4. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1993_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Sule Ozler, 1986. "Valuation of Rescheduled Loans, 1978-1983: A Rational Expectations Approach," UCLA Economics Working Papers 414, UCLA Department of Economics.
    6. Tamás Kristóf, 2021. "Sovereign Default Forecasting in the Era of the COVID-19 Crisis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-24, October.
    7. Jakob De Haan & Clemens Siermann & Erna Van Lubek, 1997. "Political instability and country risk: new evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(11), pages 703-707.
    8. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1991. "The Pure Theory of Country Risk," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 391-435, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Evrensel, Ayse Y., 2004. "Lending to developing countries revisited: changing nature of lenders and payment problems," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 235-256, September.
    10. Gottlieb, Daniel, 1987. "On the Determinants of a Country's Creditworthiness - The Case of Israel: 1971 to 1983," MPRA Paper 3147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Hernandez-Trillo, Fausto, 1995. "A model-based estimation of the probability of default in sovereign credit markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 163-179, February.
    12. M. Kabir Hassan, 2001. "Financial Structure, Creditworthiness and Stock Market Development: A Cross-Country Analysis," Working Papers 0140, Economic Research Forum, revised 12 2001.
    13. Mariana Felix Teixeira & Marcelo Cabus Klotzle & Walter Lee Ness, 2008. "Determinant Factors of Brazilian Country Risk: An Empirical Analysis of Specific Country Risk," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 6(1), pages 49-67.
    14. Nath, Hiranya K., 2009. "Country Risk Analysis: A Survey of the Quantitative Methods," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 62(1), pages 69-94.
    15. Hashmi, Rimsha Karim & Qayyum, Abdul, 2016. "Estimating the Long-Run Creditworthiness of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 70529, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Huang, Shumin, 1993. "Determinants of country creditworthiness : an empirical investigation, 1980-1989," Research Discussion Papers 1/1993, Bank of Finland.
    17. Huang, Shumin, 1993. "Determinants of country creditworthiness: an empirical investigation, 1980-1989," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/1993, Bank of Finland.
    18. Ali, Amjad, 2022. "Foreign Debt, Financial Stability, Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Growth in South Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 116099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Palac-McMiken, Evanor D., 1993. "An Empirical Investigation of Bankers' Perceptions of Country Creditworthiness," Philippine Journal of Development JPD 1993 Vol. XX No. 2-b, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    20. Palac-McMiken, Evanor D., 1995. "Predicting Discounts of Secondary Market Sovereign Debts," Philippine Journal of Development JPD 1995 Vol. XXII No. 1-, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    21. Hentschel, Jesko, 1988. "Non-optimizing growth-cum-debt models and sustainability of indebtedness," Discussion Papers, Series II 44, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:iaaeo4:197429. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.