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Scenarios to explore global food security up to 2050: Development process

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Listed:
  • van Dijk, Michiel
  • Gramberger, Marc
  • Laborde, David
  • Mandryk, Maryia
  • Shutes, Lindsay
  • Stehfest, Elke
  • Valin, Hugo
  • Zellmer, Katharina

Abstract

To guide policymaking, decision makers require a good understanding of the long-term drivers of food security and their interactions. Scenario analysis is widely considered as the appropriate tool to assess complex and uncertain problems, such as food security. This paper describes the development process, storylines and drivers of four new global scenarios up to the year 2050 that are specifically designed for food security modelling. To ensure the relevance, credibility and legitimacy of the scenarios a highly participatory process is used, involving a diverse group of stakeholders. A novel approach is introduced to quantify a selection of key drivers that directly can be used as input in global integrated assessment models to assess the impact of aid, trade, agricultural and science policies on global food and nutrition security.

Suggested Citation

  • van Dijk, Michiel & Gramberger, Marc & Laborde, David & Mandryk, Maryia & Shutes, Lindsay & Stehfest, Elke & Valin, Hugo & Zellmer, Katharina, 2015. "Scenarios to explore global food security up to 2050: Development process," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212624, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae15:212624
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.212624
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Laborde & Simla Tokgoz & Maximo Torero, 2013. "Long-Term Drivers of Food and Nutrition Security," FOODSECURE Working papers 6, LEI Wageningen UR.
    2. Nathaniel D. Mueller & James S. Gerber & Matt Johnston & Deepak K. Ray & Navin Ramankutty & Jonathan A. Foley, 2012. "Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management," Nature, Nature, vol. 490(7419), pages 254-257, October.
    3. Abramovitz, Moses, 1986. "Catching Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling Behind," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 385-406, June.
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    1. Palkovič, Jozef & Fusková, Martina, 2016. "Food Security: Overview Of Current Situation In Selected European Countries," Journal of Central European Green Innovation, Karoly Robert University College, vol. 4(3), pages 1-18.

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    Keywords

    Food Security and Poverty; International Development;

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