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Der Zuckermarkt Im Wandel: Was Passiert Nach Dem Eu-Quotenende?

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  • Haß, Marlen

Abstract

Im Zuge der GAP-Reform 2014 werden die Produktionsquoten für Zucker und Isoglukose zum Ende des Zuckerwirtschaftsjahres 2016/17 auslaufen. Ziel der Studie ist es, die Auswirkungen des EU-Quotenausstiegs auf den Zucker- und Isoglukosemarkt quantitativ abzuschätzen. Dazu werden die Markteffekte einer Aufhebung der Produktionsquoten mithilfe eines räumlichen Preisgleichgewichtsmodells für drei Weltmarktpreisszenarien analysiert. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass in einigen EU-Mitgliedstaaten die zukünftige Weltmarktpreisentwicklung darüber entscheidet, ob die Produktion infolge des Quotenausstiegs steigt oder fällt. Bei einer Aufhebung der Quoten wird die EU-Zucker- und Isoglukoseerzeugung überwiegend auf dem EU-Binnenmarkt abgesetzt und führt zu einer Verdrängung von Importen aus Ländern mit präferenziellem Zugang zum EU-Binnenmarkt und zu einem Preisverfall innerhalb der EU-28. Hierdurch sinkt die Zuckerproduktion Drittländern, insbesondere in Afrika. Bei hohen Weltmarktpreisen wechselt die EU-28 ihren Handelsstatus vom Netto-Importeur zum Netto-Exporteur. Der zukünftige Marktanteil von Isoglukose in der EU 28 wird stark durch die Weltmarktpreisverhältnisse beeinflusst. Je niedriger das Weltmarktpreisniveau ist, desto stärker steigen Isoglukoseperzeugung und verbrauch im Zuge des EU Quotenausstiegs.

Suggested Citation

  • Haß, Marlen, 2016. "Der Zuckermarkt Im Wandel: Was Passiert Nach Dem Eu-Quotenende?," 56th Annual Conference, Bonn, Germany, September 28-30, 2016 245190, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:gewi16:245190
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.245190
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis;
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