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Towards some principles of good practice for decision analysis in agriculture

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  • Hardaker, J. Brian
  • Lien, Gudbrand D.

Abstract

Because the analysis of risky choice in agriculture and rural resource management is important but difficult, we argue that there is a need for some agreed principles on how to proceed. This paper is intended as a first step to this end. We start with the proposition that the importance of risk aversion has generally been exaggerated relative to the task of finding better ways to deduce relevant and reliable probabilities. Getting better probabilities demands careful thought, drawing on what is known about the pitfalls and on evolving insights into better ways of proceeding. Our aim is to stimulate a debate leading to a clearer consensus about better practice in these matters.

Suggested Citation

  • Hardaker, J. Brian & Lien, Gudbrand D., 2005. "Towards some principles of good practice for decision analysis in agriculture," 2005 Conference (49th), February 9-11, 2005, Coff's Harbour, Australia 137925, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aare05:137925
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.137925
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    Cited by:

    1. Bobojonov, Ihtiyor & Berg, Ernst & Franz-Vasdeki, Jennifer & Martius, Christopher & Lamers, John P.A., 2016. "Income and irrigation water use efficiency under climate change: An application of spatial stochastic crop and water allocation model to Western Uzbekistan," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 13, pages 19-30.
    2. Komarek, Adam M. & De Pinto, Alessandro & Smith, Vincent H., 2020. "A review of types of risks in agriculture: What we know and what we need to know," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    3. Bonesmo, Helge & Skjelvåg, Arne Oddvar & Henry Janzen, H. & Klakegg, Ove & Tveito, Ole Einar, 2012. "Greenhouse gas emission intensities and economic efficiency in crop production: A systems analysis of 95 farms," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 142-151.
    4. Hardaker, J. Brian & Fleming, Euan M. & Lien, Gudbrand D., 2008. "Risk in Public Policy Making: A Neglected Issue in Australia," 2008 Conference (52nd), February 5-8, 2008, Canberra, Australia 5997, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    5. Miranda P.M. Meuwissen & Marcel A.P.M. Van Asseldonk & Ruud B.M. Huirne, 2006. "Coping with Crisis Risk in European Agriculture," EuroChoices, The Agricultural Economics Society, vol. 5(3), pages 34-39, December.
    6. Hardaker, J. Brian & Lien, Gudbrand, 2010. "Probabilities for decision analysis in agriculture and rural resource economics: The need for a paradigm change," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(6), pages 345-350, July.
    7. Heidelbach, Olaf, 2007. "Efficiency of selected risk management instruments: An empirical analysis of risk reduction in Kazakhstani crop production," Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Transition Economies, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), volume 40, number 92323.
    8. Lien, Gudbrand D. & Hardaker, J. Brian & Richardson, James W., 2006. "Simulating Multivariate Distributions with Sparse Data: A Kernal Density Smoothing Procedure," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25449, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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