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The Effects of Climate Changes on Brazilian Agricultural Production – A Multisector Growth Model Analysis

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  • Spolador, Humberto Francisco Silva
  • Smith, Rodney B.W.

Abstract

This paper develops a multisector growth model to examine the potential effects of climate change and Brazilian agriculture. In keeping with the current literature, the model assumes climate (here temperature and rainfall) affects agricultural output via its impact on total factor productivity (TFP). We begin by estimating an aggregate agricultural technology for Brazil, with econometric results suggesting a strong relationship exists between rainfall, temperature and agricultural TFP. We then introduce the climate effects into a dynamic multisector growth model of Brazil. Model results suggest climate change could have a negative impact on agriculture, but benefit manufacturing, with long run agricultural output per unit of labor being less than half of agricultural output per worker in a no climate change world.

Suggested Citation

  • Spolador, Humberto Francisco Silva & Smith, Rodney B.W., 2014. "The Effects of Climate Changes on Brazilian Agricultural Production – A Multisector Growth Model Analysis," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170294, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea14:170294
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.170294
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
    2. Terry L. Roe & Rodney B. W. Smith & D. Sirin Saracoglu, 2010. "Multisector Growth Models," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-0-387-77358-2, December.
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    7. Vinyes, Cristina & Roe, Terry L., 2010. "Growth Diagnostics and a Multisector Ramsey Model: The Case of Brazil," Bulletins 56502, University of Minnesota, Economic Development Center.
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    Environmental Economics and Policy; Productivity Analysis;

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