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Introduction to Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction
[Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction]

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Author Info

  • Stephen J. Taylor

    (Lancaster University, England)

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    Abstract

    This book shows how current and recent market prices convey information about the probability distributions that govern future prices. Moving beyond purely theoretical models, Stephen Taylor applies methods supported by empirical research of equity and foreign exchange markets to show how daily and more frequent asset prices, and the prices of option contracts, can be used to construct and assess predictions about future prices, their volatility, and their probability distributions. Stephen Taylor provides a comprehensive introduction to the dynamic behavior of asset prices, relying on finance theory and statistical evidence. He uses stochastic processes to define mathematical models for price dynamics, but with less mathematics than in alternative texts. The key topics covered include random walk tests, trading rules, ARCH models, stochastic volatility models, high-frequency datasets, and the information that option prices imply about volatility and distributions. Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction is ideal for students of economics, finance, and mathematics who are studying financial econometrics, and will enable researchers to identify and apply appropriate models and methods. It will likewise be a valuable resource for quantitative analysts, fund managers, risk managers, and investors who seek realistic expectations about future asset prices and the risks to which they are exposed.

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    File URL: http://press.princeton.edu/chapters/i8055.pdf
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    File URL: http://press.princeton.edu/chapters/i8055.html
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    Bibliographic Info

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    This chapter was published in: Stephen J. Taylor , , pages , 2007.

    This item is provided by Princeton University Press in its series Introductory Chapters with number 8055-1.

    Handle: RePEc:pup:chapts:8055-1

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    Web page: http://press.princeton.edu

    Related research

    Keywords: market prices; probability distribution; equity; foreign exchange; asset prices; option contracts; predictions; volatility; finance theory; statistical evidence; stochastic processes; mathematical models; price dynamics; random walk; trading rules; quantitative analysis;

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    Cited by:
    1. Christian Francq & Jean-Michel Zakoïan, 2011. "Estimating the Marginal Law of a Time Series with Applications to Heavy Tailed Distributions," Working Papers 2011-30, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
    2. Algieri, Bernardina, 2012. "Price Volatility, Speculation and Excessive Speculation in Commodity Markets: sheep or shepherd behaviour?," Discussion Papers 124390, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    3. Xiuping Mao & Esther Ruiz & Helena Veiga, 2013. "One for all : nesting asymmetric stochastic volatility models," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws131110, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
    4. Francq, Christian & Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 2010. "Optimal predictions of powers of conditionally heteroskedastic processes," MPRA Paper 22155, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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