IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/nbr/nberch/4397.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Forecasting Economic Conditions: The Record and the Prospect

In: Economic Research: Retrospect and Prospect, Volume 1, The Business Cycle Today

Author

Listed:
  • Victor Zarnowitz

Abstract

No abstract is available for this item.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor Zarnowitz, 1972. "Forecasting Economic Conditions: The Record and the Prospect," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Research: Retrospect and Prospect, Volume 1, The Business Cycle Today, pages 183-239, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:4397
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c4397.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rendigs Fels & C. Elton Hinshaw, 1968. "Forecasting and Recognizing Business Cycle Turning Points," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number fels68-1, March.
    2. Victor Zarnowitz, 1967. "An Appraisal of Short-Term Economic Forecasts," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn67-1, March.
    3. Universities-National Bureau Committee for Economic Research, 1951. "Conference on Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number univ51-1, March.
    4. Carl Christ, 1951. "A Test of an Econometric Model for the United States, 1921-1947," NBER Chapters, in: Conference on Business Cycles, pages 35-130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Arthur M. Okun, 1957. "A Review of Some Economic Forecasts," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 45, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    6. Geoffrey H. Moore & Julius Shiskin, 1967. "Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number moor67-2, March.
    7. Jacob A. Mincer, 1969. "Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number minc69-1, March.
    8. Arthur M. Okun, 1959. "A Review of Some Economic Forecasts for 1955-57," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32, pages 199-199.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. John Lintner, 1972. "Finance and Capital Markets," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Research: Retrospect and Prospect, Volume 2, Finance and Capital Markets, pages 1-53, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Victor Zarnowitz, 1991. "Has Macro-Forecasting Failed?," NBER Working Papers 3867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. John Lintner, 1972. "Finance and Capital Markets," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Research. Retrospect and Prospect: Finance and Capital Markets, Fiftieth Anniversary Colloquium II, pages 1-53, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Victor Zarnowitz & Phillip Braun, 1993. "Twenty-two Years of the NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 11-94, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Chan Guk Huh, 1998. "Forecasting industrial production using models with business cycle asymmetry," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 29-41.
    6. Victor Zarnowitz, 1982. "Expectations and Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys," NBER Working Papers 0845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Victor Zarnowitz, 1982. "The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys," NBER Working Papers 1053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Various, 1971. "Papers by Staff Members on Research Priorities," NBER Chapters, in: New Directions in Economic Research, pages 1-70, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 3-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Geoffrey H. Moore, 1983. "Forecasting Short-Term Economic Change," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, pages 401-432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Solomon Fabricant, 1971. "Recent Economic Changes and the Agenda of Business-Cycle Research," NBER Chapters, in: Supplement to NBER Report Eight, pages 1-33, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Gács, János & Lackó, Mária, 1974. "A népgazdasági szintű tervezési magatartás vizsgálata: kísérlet néhány összefüggés elemzésére [Examination of national-level planning behaviour: An attempt at analysing some interrelations]," MPRA Paper 61834, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Victor Zarnowitz, 1980. "On Functions, Quality, and Timeliness of Economic Information," NBER Working Papers 0608, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Sergey V. Smirnov & Daria A. Avdeeva, 2016. "Wishful Bias in Predicting Us Recessions: Indirect Evidence," HSE Working papers WP BRP 135/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    8. J. Scott Armstrong & Michael C. Grohman, 1972. "A Comparative Study of Methods for Long-Range Market Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 19(2), pages 211-221, October.
    9. Victor Zarnowitz, 1984. "Business Cycles Analysis and Expectational Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 1378, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Zellner, Arnold, 1999. "Keep It Sophisticatedly Simple," CUDARE Working Papers 198673, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    11. Paulo Júlio & Pedro M. Esperança & João C. Fonseca, 2011. "Evaluating the forecast quality of GDP components," GEE Papers 0041 Classification-C52, , Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Oct 2011.
    12. Solomon Fabricant, 1972. "Recent Economic Changes and the Agenda of Business Cycle Research," NBER Chapters, in: Supplement to NBER Report Eight, pages 1-33, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Ericsson, Neil R., 2016. "Eliciting GDP forecasts from the FOMC’s minutes around the financial crisis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 571-583.
    14. Pascal Bührig & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2015. "Revisions of German Industrial Production Statistics and Ifo Indicators," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(21), pages 27-31, November.
    15. Baris Soybilgen & Ege Yazgan, 2017. "An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 17(1), pages 1-31–38.
    16. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
    17. Karel Janda, 2019. "Earnings Stability and Peer Company Selection for Multiple Based Indirect Valuation," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(1), pages 37-75, February.
    18. Pericoli, Marcello & Taboga, Marco, 2012. "Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 42-65.
    19. Bedri Kamil Onur Taş, 2016. "Does the Federal Reserve have Private Information about its Future Actions?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(331), pages 498-517, July.
    20. Chang, Andrew C. & Hanson, Tyler J., 2016. "The accuracy of forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 23-43.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:4397. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.