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Demographics, Fiscal Policy, and US Saving in the 1980s and Beyond

In: Tax Policy and the Economy: Volume 4

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  • Alan J. Auerbach
  • Laurence J. Kotlikoff

Abstract

This paper focuses on U.S. saving, demographics, and fiscal policy. We use data from the Consumer Expenditure Surveys of the 1980s to consider the effect of demographic change on past and future U.S. saving rates. Our findings indicate that demographic change may significantly alter the U.S. rate of national saving and current account position over the next 50 years. The gradual aging of the population is predicted to lead to higher saving rates over the next three decades with declines in the rate of saving thereafter. Associated with these predicted saving rate changes is a predicted improvement in the U.S. current account position is the 1990s, with a very gradual deterioration during the subsequent decades. While demographics is a potentially very important factor in explaining saving, it does not appear to explain the drop in the U.S. saving rate in the 1980s. What happened to U.S. saving in the 1980s remains an intriguing puzzle.
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Suggested Citation

  • Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1990. "Demographics, Fiscal Policy, and US Saving in the 1980s and Beyond," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy: Volume 4, pages 73-102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:11573
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Finite lifetimes and the effects of budget deficits on national saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 369-391, September.
    2. Kotlikoff, Laurence J & Summers, Lawrence H, 1981. "The Role of Intergenerational Transfers in Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 706-732, August.
    3. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Robert Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "The Dynamics of an Aging Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 2797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. David, Paul A & Scadding, John L, 1974. "Private Savings: Ultrarationality, Aggregation, and "Denison's Law."," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(2), pages 225-249, Part I, M.
    5. Alan J. Auerbach & Kevin Hassett, 1991. "Corporate Savings and Shareholder Consumption," NBER Chapters, in: National Saving and Economic Performance, pages 75-102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Robert P. Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "The Economic Dynamics of an Ageing Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 62, OECD Publishing.
    7. Christopher D. Carroll & Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Consumption Growth Parallels Income Growth: Some New Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: National Saving and Economic Performance, pages 305-348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Adrien Auclert & Hannes Malmberg & Frederic Martenet & Matthew Rognlie, 2021. "Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First Century," NBER Working Papers 29161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Nicolas Afflatet, 2016. "The impact of population ageing on public debt. A panel analysis for eighteen european countries," Working Papers 1615, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    3. FUKAO Kyoji & MAKINO Tatsuji, 2015. "Aging, Interregional Income Inequality, and Industrial Structure: An empirical analysis based on the R-JIP Database and the R-LTES Database," Discussion papers 15022, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    4. Barr, Nicholas, 1992. "Economic theory and the welfare state : a survey and interpretation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 279, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Frederic L. Pryor, 2003. "Demographic Effects on Personal Saving in the Future," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(3), pages 541-559, January.
    6. Nicolas Afflatet, 2018. "The Impact of Population Ageing on Public Debt: A Panel Data Analysis for 18 European Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 68-77.
    7. Atif Mian & Ludwig Straub & Amir Sufi, 2021. "What explains the decline in r ∗ ? Rising income inequality versus demographic shifts," Working Papers 2021-12, Princeton University. Economics Department..

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