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Impact of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership: A Global Computable General Equilibrium Simulation

In: Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership: Implications, Challenges, and Future Growth of East Asia and ASEAN

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  • Ken Itakura

Abstract

This study estimates the potential economic effects of the Regional Comprehensive conomic Partnership (RCEP) by using a recursively dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which incorporates the global supply chains (GSCs) structure, also referred as the global value chains (GVCs). The tariff reduction schedules for the RCEP agreement are incorporated in addition to other large FTAs, such as the CPTPP. Second, the structure of GSCs is included in the CGE model to take into account the importance of trade in intermediate goods and services. This study implements the RCEP simulation scenarios for tariff reductions, services trade liberalization, logistic improvements, and investment commitments. Results show that the real GDP of RCEP members increases by $675 billion in total, of which ASEAN grows by $160 billion.

Suggested Citation

  • Ken Itakura, 2022. "Impact of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership: A Global Computable General Equilibrium Simulation," Chapters, in: Fukunari Kimura & Shandre Mugan Thangavelu & Dionisius Narjoko (ed.), Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership: Implications, Challenges, and Future Growth of East Asia and ASEAN, chapter 5, pages 111-140, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    • Handle: RePEc:era:chaptr:2022-rcep1-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David L. Hummels & Georg Schaur, 2013. "Time as a Trade Barrier," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 2935-2959, December.
    2. Ianchovichina,Elena & Walmsley,Terrie L. (ed.), 2012. "Dynamic Modeling and Applications for Global Economic Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107002432.
    3. Lee, Hiro & Owen, Robert F. & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2009. "Regional integration in Asia and its effects on the EU and North America," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 240-254, May.
    4. Peter A. Petri & Michael G. Plummer, 2020. "East Asia Decouples from the United States: Trade War, COVID-19, and East Asia's New Trade Blocs," Working Paper Series WP20-09, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    5. Ianchovichina,Elena & Walmsley,Terrie L. (ed.), 2012. "Dynamic Modeling and Applications for Global Economic Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107011694.
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