Consumer perspectives

The process of buying a car is rapidly changing due to the explosion of consumer-oriented information on the internet and the diminished role of the dealer in consumer decision making. Tesla has a unique business model that does not rely on dealerships; it may work better with early adopters and premium buyers than with buyers looking for an affordable BEV. Pro-PEV activists are concerned that dealers are hostile or indifferent to PEVs but at least two global manufacturers, Nissan and Chevrolet, made major investments to prepare their dealerships to sell PEVs. The record shows that when companies set sales goals for affordable PEVs and prepare their dealers, actual sales fall short of goals. Some premium PEVs have approached or even exceeded sales goals (e.g., the Tesla Model S). There are peculiar institutional aspects of the manufacturer-dealer-consumer relationship in the US that restrain the deployment of PEVs. Since those legal constraints are not applicable to Europe, China and Japan, we should expect a somewhat slower rate of diffusion of PEVs in the US. The hard truth about BEVs is that consumers, when they focus, see some disadvantages as well as advantages to purchasing or leasing a BEV. Without a big governmental push to promote BEV sales, the current technology - even with recent improvements in driving range - is unlikely to commercialize beyond early adopters and niche markets. Further declines in battery prices will help but redesigned battery packs that achieve longer range and ultra-fast charging will raise battery-pack costs. The transition from early adopters to mainstream buyers will not be easy, as the 20-year history with HEVs demonstrates (see Chapter 4). The PHEV has a driving-range advantage relative to a BEV but faces a long-run cost disadvantage; it also faces intense competition from HEVs. More creativity is required to make the case for PEVs to mainstream consumers looking for a tangible value proposition. The TCO perspective on consumer decision making is one possibility. More research and experimentation with the TCO perspective is appropriate, as one of the most tangible benefits of a PEV is that it may provide the consumer a significant long-run decline in TCO. A transition to PEVs is underway but the time until mass commercialization occurs, if it occurs, is likely to take longer than many forecasters suggest. In Chapter 12, I show how strong and durable governmental policies must be to catalyze mass commercialization of PEVs within a 5 to 10 year period.