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Fiskalpakt belastet Euroraum. Gemeinsame Diagnose des Makro-Konsortiums

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  • N. N.

Abstract

Der Rückgang der Nachfrage aus dem Euro-Raum belastet die deutschen Exporte und in der Folge auch die Investitionen. Die deutsche Wirtschaft dürfte 2012 um nur 0,3% wachsen. Für das Jahr 2013 divergieren die Aussichten: Die deutschen Exporte in die Länder außerhalb des Euro-Raumes dürften stärker steigen, die anhaltende Austeritätspolitik im Euro-Raum wird hingegen die Nachfrage nach deutschen Produkten weiter belasten. Das Aufleben der Exportnachfrage regt auch die Binnennachfrage an, insbesondere die Investitionen in Ausrüstungen. Das Makro-Konsortium IMK–OFCE–WIFO geht für das Jahr 2013 von einem Wachstum des BIP um 0,7% aus. Simulationen der mittelfristigen Entwicklung im Euro-Raum zeigen, dass synchrone Anpassungsprogramme, die primär auf der Angebotsseite ansetzen, die Kluft zwischen den EU-Ländern in Südeuropa und Deutschland vertiefen. Um einen Ausweg aus der Krise im Euro-Raum zu finden, muss auch eine expansive Nachfragepolitik wieder Teil der wirtschaftspolitischen Agenda in Europa werden.

Suggested Citation

  • N. N., 2012. "Fiskalpakt belastet Euroraum. Gemeinsame Diagnose des Makro-Konsortiums," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 44153, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wstudy:44153
    Note: With English abstract.
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