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Wahrscheinlichkeits-Überschreitungskurven für Hochwasserkatastrophen in Österreich

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Url

    (WIFO)

Abstract

Wahrscheinlichkeits-Überschreitungskurven sind eine Möglichkeit zur optischen Darstellung und Nutzung der Ergebnisse eines Katastrophenmodells. Sie beschreiben die jährliche Wahrscheinlichkeit, mit der ein gegebenes Portfolio von Objekten ein vorgegebenes Schadensausmaß potentiell überschreitet. Die hier für Österreich erstmals berechneten Wahrscheinlichkeits-Überschreitungskurven für Hochwasserkatastrophen zeigen, dass für Wohngebäude privater Haushalte in Österreich ein Gesamtschadenvolumen von 100 Mio. € einmal in 1.000 Fällen (0,1%) überschritten wird; umgekehrt ausgedrückt bleibt der Gesamtschaden an privaten Wohngebäuden in 999 von 1.000 Fällen (99,9%) unter dem Wert von 100 Mio. €. Die Wahrscheinlichkeits-Überschreitungskurven erlauben auch die Berechnung der Grenzwerte für ein Sicherheitsniveau von 1 in 10.000 Fällen (0,01%). In diesem Fall würde für private Wohngebäude ein Gesamtschaden von 400 Mio. € einmal in 10.000 Fällen überschritten. Höhere Schäden können durchaus auftreten, die entsprechende Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeit ist jedoch gering. Die Berechnung von Wahrscheinlichkeits-Überschreitungskurven für öffentliche Gebäude, Gebäude des Dienstleistungssektors, der Industrie und des Gewerbes sowie sonstige Gebäude erlaubt eine umfassende Einschätzung des Hochwasserrisikos auf der Grundlage des Bestands aus dem Jahr 2005.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Url, 2008. "Wahrscheinlichkeits-Überschreitungskurven für Hochwasserkatastrophen in Österreich," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 34140, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wstudy:34140
    Note: With English abstract.
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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