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Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2026: Erhebliche Herausforderungen bei nachlassendem Potenzialwachstum

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  • Barabas, György
  • Kirsch, Florian
  • Schmidt, Torsten

Abstract

Die deutsche Volkswirtschaft steht in den kommenden Jahren vor erheblichen Herausforderungen. Während die Folgen der Corona-Pandemie auf die Wirtschaftsleistung noch nicht vollständig überwunden sind, verstärken die Auswirkungen des Krieges in der Ukraine die bereits zuvor erhöhte Inflation, nicht zuletzt bei den Energiepreisen. Vor diesem Hintergrund dürfte das Wachstum bereits in der kurzen Frist verhaltener ausfallen als zunächst erwartet worden war. Mittelfristig dämpft dann voraussichtlich die demografische Entwicklung in Deutschland zunehmend das Potenzialwachstum, da die Alterung der Bevölkerung das Arbeitskräftepotenzial erheblich reduziert. Gleichzeitig verstärken die hohen Energiepreise und die Ziele zur Reduktion von Treibhausgasemissionen den Druck für Anpassungen der Produktion, während die Unsicherheit über die weitere Entwicklung und die Risiken hoch bleiben.

Suggested Citation

  • Barabas, György & Kirsch, Florian & Schmidt, Torsten, 2022. "Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2026: Erhebliche Herausforderungen bei nachlassendem Potenzialwachstum," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 73(2), pages 33-44.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwikon:265339
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    1. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2022. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose #1-2022 – Von der Pandemie zur Energiekrise – Wirtschaft und Politik im Dauerstress," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 69833, April.
    2. Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Fabrice Orlandi & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roeger & Alessandro Rossi & Anna Thum-Thysen & Valerie Vandermeulen, 2014. "The Production Function Methodology for Calculating Potential Growth Rates & Output Gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 535, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    3. Schmidt, Torsten & Barabas, György & Benner, Niklas & Blagov, Boris & Dirks, Maximilian & Isaak, Niklas & Jessen, Robin & Kirsch, Florian & Schacht, Philip & Weyerstrass, Klaus, 2022. "Erneute Belastungen verzögern nochmals die wirtschaftliche Erholung in Deutschland," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 73(2), pages 5-32.
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