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The Impact of Exchange Rate volatility on Banking Performance (case of Iran)

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  • Keshtgar, Nafiseh
  • Pahlavani, Mosayeb
  • Mirjalili, Seyed Hossein

Abstract

Banks play an important role in the Iranian economy which has a bank-based financial system. We examined the impact of exchange rate volatility as a determinant of banks' performance. In recent years, the exchange rate has been volatile in the Iranian economy and have an adverse effect on banks' performance. This study, investigate the issue for the period 2007-2017 for 14 Iranian banks. Exchange rate fluctuations are derived by GARCH method and the effect of its fluctuations on bank performance examined using panel data method. In order to evaluate banks' performance, we used two criteria, namely liquidity and profitability. Estimation of econometric model using panel data by random effects indicated that exchange rate volatility has a negative and statistically significant effect on banks' capital return ratio. Exchange rate volatility is also a determinant in increasing the ratio of lending to total bank deposits, as it increases the financial gap and creates the credit risk that the gap entails.

Suggested Citation

  • Keshtgar, Nafiseh & Pahlavani, Mosayeb & Mirjalili, Seyed Hossein, 2020. "The Impact of Exchange Rate volatility on Banking Performance (case of Iran)," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 39-56.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:224976
    DOI: 10.22111/ijbds.2020.5436
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ricardo Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2005. "Exchange Rate Volatility and the Credit Channel in Emerging Markets: A Vertical Perspective," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
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    3. Jürgen von Hagen & Iulia Siedschlag, 2010. "Managing Capital Flows: Experiences from Central and Eastern Europe," Chapters, in: Masahiro Kawai & Mario B. Lamberte (ed.), Managing Capital Flows, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Reinhart, Carmen & Montiel, Peter, 2001. "The Dynamics of Capital Movements to Emerging Economies During the 1990s," MPRA Paper 7577, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Kasman, Saadet & Vardar, Gülin & Tunç, Gökçe, 2011. "The impact of interest rate and exchange rate volatility on banks' stock returns and volatility: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1328-1334, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Keshtgar, Nafiseh & Pahlavani, Mosayeb & Mirjalili, Seyed Hossein, 2020. "The Impact of Macroprudential Policies on the Vulnerability of the Banking System: Dynamic Panel Model," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 15(4), pages 357-379.
    2. Keshtgar, Nafiseh & Pahlavani, Mosayeb & Mirjalili, Seyed Hossein, 2020. "The Impact of Macroprudential Policies on the Vulnerability of the Banking System: Dynamic Panel Model," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 15(4), pages 357-379, October.
    3. Taslima Akther & Mushfiqur Rahman & Md. Mufidur Rahman, 2023. "Factors influencing commercial bank profitability in Bangladesh: a panel data approach," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volatility; Exchange Rate; Banks' Performance; Panel Data; Iranian Economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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