IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/serxxx/v58y2013i01ns0217590813500045.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Economic Voting Hypothesis In The Presence Of Threshold Effects: Evidence From Asymmetric Modeling

Author

Listed:
  • CHUN-PING CHANG

    (Department of Marketing Management, Shih Chien University at Kaohsiung, Kaohsiung, Taiwan)

  • CHIEN-CHIANG LEE

    (Department of Finance, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan)

Abstract

The issue of asymmetry and nonlinearity in the context of economic voting was proposed as far back as the 1970s. The aim of this paper is to revisit the economic voting phenomenon by investigating the asymmetric cointegration between government popularity and economic conditions in Taiwan over the period from 1992 to 2007. We employ an advanced threshold autoregressive model and find strong evidence of threshold cointegration relationships between our observed variables. Furthermore, an asymmetric error correction model indicates that voters use different economic indicators to evaluate government popularity in different regimes and the speed of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium is more rapid in the lower regime and slower in the higher regime. Finally, the evidence shows that the economic voting behavior is supported by the presence of the threshold effects. Based on the nonlinear, asymmetric and threshold effects, we are able to provide several critical implications concerning the governance of the incumbent political party, particularly, in relation to the promotion of economic policy aimed at improving its popularity.

Suggested Citation

  • Chun-Ping Chang & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2013. "The Economic Voting Hypothesis In The Presence Of Threshold Effects: Evidence From Asymmetric Modeling," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 58(01), pages 1-29.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:58:y:2013:i:01:n:s0217590813500045
    DOI: 10.1142/S0217590813500045
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0217590813500045
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S0217590813500045?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claude Diebolt & Catherine Kyrtsou, 2005. "New Trends in Macroeconomics," Post-Print hal-00279607, HAL.
    2. anonymous, 1988. "Answering the call for banking supervision," The Region, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Aug.
    3. Unknown, 1988. "Abstracts Of Selected Papers," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 1-4, October.
    4. Mark S. Daskin & Leonard Evans & Randolph Hall & Charles E. M. Pearce & Gordon Newell, 1988. "Bibliographic Section," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(4), pages 289-293, November.
    5. Unknown, 1988. "Abstracts: Organized Symposia," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 20(1), pages 1-5, July.
    6. Sreedhar, 1988. "Treaty Relations between Nepal and Tibet," China Report, , vol. 24(3), pages 243-288, August.
    7. Unknown, 1988. "Abstracts Selected Papers, July 1988," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 20(1), pages 1-23, July.
    8. Ritter, Archibald R.M., 1988. "Cuba's convertible currency debt problem," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    9. Claude Diebolt & Catherine Kyrtsou (ed.), 2005. "New Trends in Macroeconomics," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-540-28556-4, November.
    10. Bornier Jean Magnan de & Norpoth H. & Lewis-Beck M.S. & Lafay J.D., 1991. "Economics and Politics The calculus of support," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 2(4), pages 1-3, December.
    11. Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2013. "Insurance And Real Output: The Key Role Of Banking Activities," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 235-260, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. E Goulas & C Kallandranis & A Zervoyianni, 2019. "Voting Behaviour and the Economy: Evidence from Greece," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 24(1), pages 35-58, March.
    2. Chang, Chun-Ping & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Hsieh, Meng-Chi, 2015. "Does globalization promote real output? Evidence from quantile cointegration regression," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 25-36.
    3. Bo Sui & Gen-Fu Feng & Chun-Ping Chang, 2018. "The pioneer evidence of contagious corruption," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 945-968, March.
    4. Wen, Jun & Yang, Di & Feng, Gen-Fu & Dong, Minyi & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2018. "Venture capital and innovation in China: The non-linear evidence," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 148-162.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Muhammad Shahbaz & Abu N. M. Wahid & Adnan Haider, 2010. "Empirical Psychology Between Wholesale Price And Consumer Price Indices: The Case Of Pakistan," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 55(03), pages 537-551.
    2. Dukhabandhu Sahoo & Maathai K. Mathiyazhagan, 2003. "Economic Growth In India: "Does Foreign Direct Investment Inflow Matter?"," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 48(02), pages 151-171.
    3. L. A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Testing Of Real Convergence In Germany In The Presence Of Structural Breaks," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 50(01), pages 93-101.
    4. Mohd Tahir Ismail & Zaidi Bin Isa, 2009. "Modeling The Interactions Of Stock Price And Exchange Rate In Malaysia," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 54(04), pages 605-619.
    5. Wing-Keung Wong & Habibullah Khan & Jun Du, 2006. "Do Money And Interest Rates Matter For Stock Prices? An Econometric Study Of Singapore And Usa," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 51(01), pages 31-51.
    6. Qaiser Munir & Kok Sook Ching & Fumitaka Furouka & Kasim Mansur, 2012. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis Revisited: Evidence From The Five Small Open Asean Stock Markets," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 57(03), pages 1-12.
    7. Wong Hock Tsen, 2014. "The Real Exchange Rate Determination: Empirical Evidence From Malaysia," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 59(02), pages 1-19.
    8. Salih Turan Katircioǧlu, 2011. "Tourism And Growth In Singapore: New Extension From Bounds Test To Level Relationships And Conditional Granger Causality Tests," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 56(03), pages 441-453.
    9. Donald Lien & Keshab Shrestha, 2012. "The Effects Of Price Dynamics On Optimal Futures Hedging," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(02), pages 1-10.
    10. Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2016. "Voting and Popularity," CREMA Working Paper Series 2016-08, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    11. Claude Diebolt & Magali Jaoul-Grammare, 2014. "The payroll of the Germany: 1810-1989 [La masse salariale de l'Allemagne: 1810-1989]," Post-Print hal-01744546, HAL.
    12. Polemis, Michael & Tselekounis, Markos, 2019. "Does deregulation drive innovation intensity? Lessons learned from the OECD telecommunications sector," MPRA Paper 92770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-442 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Benati, Luca, 2015. "The long-run Phillips curve: A structural VAR investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 15-28.
    15. Baumeister, Christiane & Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2013. "Changes in the effects of monetary policy on disaggregate price dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 543-560.
    16. Claude DIEBOLT & Magali JAOUL-GRAMMARE, 2014. "La masse salariale de l'Allemagne: 1810-1989. Nouvelle mesure et analyse cliométrique des chocs," Economies et Sociétés (Serie 'Histoire Economique Quantitative'), Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), issue 49, pages 1269-1292, Août.
    17. Ida Wolden Bache, 2008. "Assessing estimates of the exchange rate pass-through," Working Paper 2007/12, Norges Bank.
    18. Rosa Bernardini Papalia & Silvia Bertarelli, 2013. "Nonlinearities in economic growth and club convergence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1171-1202, June.
    19. Peter Martey Addo & Monica Billio & Dominique Guegan, 2013. "Turning point chronology for the Euro-Zone: A Distance Plot Approach," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13025r, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Oct 2013.
    20. Matteo Barigozzi & Antonio M. Conti & Matteo Luciani, 2014. "Do Euro Area Countries Respond Asymmetrically to the Common Monetary Policy?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(5), pages 693-714, October.
    21. Catherine Kyrtsou & Michel Terraza, 2010. "Seasonal Mackey–Glass–GARCH process and short-term dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 325-345, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic voting; government popularity; threshold autoregressive model; threshold effect; asymmetric vector error-correction; C52; D72; P16; C32;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:58:y:2013:i:01:n:s0217590813500045. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/ser/ser.shtml .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.