The Origins of Productivity Change and Economic Growth in China’s Cities between the Years 2001 and 2014

Total factor productivity represents not only the core of neo-classical growth theory research, but is also a key component in the understanding of the transitional processes of China from a factor-driven to an innovation-driven economy. In this paper, relying on 2000–2014 year statistical data, drawn from China’s four centrally administered and 283 provincial-level cities, the paper’s authors apply Cobb–Douglas production function methods to the calculation of urban total factor productivity rates of increase, and to changes in differing factor inputs, to show how, during the period of interest, involved changes impacted China’s economic growth. The analysis finds that: (1) between the years 2001 and 2005, changes in total factor productivity represented an important source of economic growth, but that after 2005 China’s economic growth clearly exhibited physical capital-driven features; (2) from 2012 onwards, influenced by resource-based and heavy chemical industries, the decrease in total factor productivity of China’s central region cities was the greatest (among the various areas), revealing an “extensive” aspect, and in 2014 the contribution rates of the region’s cities’ physical capital and total factor productivity were 127.77% and −36.6%, respectively; (3) examining the cities based on their differing classifications, after 2012, the contribution rates of the fourth-tier cities’ total factor productivities underwent severe declines, while in China’s first- and second-tier cities the contribution rates of their total factor productivities exhibited signs of recovery.