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The Effects of Exchange‐Rate Volatility on Commodity Trade between the United States and Mexico

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  • Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee
  • Scott W. Hegerty

Abstract

Excessive fluctuations in exchange rates often influence trade flows. Theoretically, increased uncertainty may increase or decrease the volume of trade, or leave it unchanged. Using annual export and import data for 102 industries from 1962 to 2004, we analyze both the short‐ and long‐term effects of volatility in the peso/dollar real exchange rate on Mexican trade with the United States. We also investigate the effects of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on this relationship. We find that increased volatility has short‐term effects on the trade flows of most industries but that the long‐term effects are significant (positive or negative) for only one‐third of industries. Most of the significant effects are negative rather than positive.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2009. "The Effects of Exchange‐Rate Volatility on Commodity Trade between the United States and Mexico," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 75(4), pages 1019-1044, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:soecon:v:75:y:2009:i:4:p:1019-1044
    DOI: 10.1002/j.2325-8012.2009.tb00945.x
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    1. M Bahmani-Oskooee & H Harvey, 2023. "Whose Policy Uncertainty Matters in the Trade between Mexico and the US?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 28(2), pages 39-69, September.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sujata Saha, 2021. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows of India with each of its fourteen partners," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 66-85, January.
    3. Sabrine Ferjani & Sami Saafi & Ridha Nouira & Christophe Rault, 2022. "The Impacts of the Dollar-Renminbi Exchange Rate Misalignment on the China-United States Commodity Trade: An Asymmetric Analysis," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(3), pages 507-554, September.
    4. James Atta Peprah & Isaac Kwesi Ofori & Abel Nyarko Asomani, 2019. "Financial development, remittances and economic growth: A threshold analysis," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1625107-162, January.
    5. Sadettin Haluk Citci & Hüseyin Kaya, 2023. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Connectedness of Inflation," Working Papers 2022-01, Gebze Technical University, Department of Economics.
    6. Jia Xu & Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Huseyin Karamelikli, 2022. "On the link between U.S.‐China commodity trade and exchange rate uncertainty: An asymmetric analysis," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 87-137, March.
    7. Cueyt SEVIM & Taylan Taner DOGAN, 2016. "Turkiye Ekonomisinde Ihracat ve Doviz Kuru Oynakligi Iliskisi," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 16(2), pages 303-318.
    8. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2021. "Exchange rate volatility and commodity trade between United States and Australia: An asymmetric analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(6), pages 1509-1700, June.
    9. Xu, Jia & Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Karamelikli, Huseyin, 2022. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate uncertainty on China’s bilateral trade with its major partners," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 653-669.
    10. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Toan Luu Duc Huynh & Muhammad Ali Nasir, 2021. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange‐rate volatility on trade flows: Evidence from US–UK Commodity Trade," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 51-102, February.
    11. Massomeh Hajilee & Omar M. Al Nasser, 2017. "Financial Depth and Exchange Rate Volatility," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 62(1), pages 19-30, March.
    12. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2022. "The U.S.‐Canadian trade and exchange rate uncertainty: Asymmetric evidence from commodity trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 841-866, March.
    13. Lal, Madan & Kumar, Satish & Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Rai, Varun Kumar & Lim, Weng Marc, 2023. "Exchange rate volatility and international trade," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).

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