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A Social Decision Analysis of the Earthquake Safety Problem: The Case of Existing Los Angeles Buildings

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  • Rakesh Kumar Sarin

Abstract

In this paper we propose a framework for conducting a decision analysis for a societal problem such as earthquake safety. The application deals with the formulation and evaluation of alternative policies for the seismic safety problem faced by the city of Los Angeles with regard to its old masonry buildings. A social decision analysis compares the costs and benefits of the alternative policies from the viewpoints of the impacted constituents. The emphasis is on identifying acceptable policy that considers the interests of the impacted constituents and provides incentives for their cooperation. Alternatives ranging from strict regulation to free market are examined. In order to evaluate the trade‐offs between additional cost and savings in lives, a direct willingness‐to‐pay and an economic approach, based on property value differential, are used. Recommendations range from strict regulation for the residential and critical buildings (schools, hospitals, fire stations, etc.) to simply informing the occupants (in the case of commercial and industrial buildings) of the risks involved.

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  • Rakesh Kumar Sarin, 1983. "A Social Decision Analysis of the Earthquake Safety Problem: The Case of Existing Los Angeles Buildings," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(1), pages 35-50, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:3:y:1983:i:1:p:35-50
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1983.tb00104.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martin J. Bailey, 1980. "Reducing Risks to Life: Measurement of the Benefits," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 51808, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robin C. Van den Honert, 2016. "Improving Decision Making about Natural Disaster Mitigation Funding in Australia—A Framework," Resources, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-23, September.
    2. Lester B. Lave & Joshua Menkes, 1985. "Managing Risk: A Joint U.S.‐German Perspective," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(1), pages 17-23, March.
    3. James J. Buckley, 1986. "Stochastic Dominance: An Approach to Decision Making Under Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(1), pages 35-41, March.
    4. Chiara D’Alpaos & Paolo Bragolusi, 2020. "The Market Price Premium for Buildings Seismic Retrofitting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-20, October.
    5. Vicki Bier, 2020. "The Role of Decision Analysis in Risk Analysis: A Retrospective," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(S1), pages 2207-2217, November.

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