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Modeling the Cost Effectiveness of Fire Protection Resource Allocation in the United States: Models and a 1980–2014 Case Study

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  • Adam Behrendt
  • Vineet M. Payyappalli
  • Jun Zhuang

Abstract

The estimated cost of fire in the United States is about $329 billion a year, yet there are gaps in the literature to measure the effectiveness of investment and to allocate resources optimally in fire protection. This article fills these gaps by creating data‐driven empirical and theoretical models to study the effectiveness of nationwide fire protection investment in reducing economic and human losses. The regression between investment and loss vulnerability shows high R2 values (≈0.93). This article also contributes to the literature by modeling strategic (national‐level or state‐level) resource allocation (RA) for fire protection with equity‐efficiency trade‐off considerations, while existing literature focuses on operational‐level RA. This model and its numerical analyses provide techniques and insights to aid the strategic decision‐making process. The results from this model are used to calculate fire risk scores for various geographic regions, which can be used as an indicator of fire risk. A case study of federal fire grant allocation is used to validate and show the utility of the optimal RA model. The results also identify potential underinvestment and overinvestment in fire protection in certain regions. This article presents scenarios in which the model presented outperforms the existing RA scheme, when compared in terms of the correlation of resources allocated with actual number of fire incidents. This article provides some novel insights to policymakers and analysts in fire protection and safety that would help in mitigating economic costs and saving lives.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Behrendt & Vineet M. Payyappalli & Jun Zhuang, 2019. "Modeling the Cost Effectiveness of Fire Protection Resource Allocation in the United States: Models and a 1980–2014 Case Study," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(6), pages 1358-1381, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:39:y:2019:i:6:p:1358-1381
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.13262
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    1. Esther Jose & Puneet Agarwal & Jun Zhuang, 2023. "A data-driven analysis and optimization of the impact of prescribed fire programs on wildfire risk in different regions of the USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(1), pages 181-207, August.
    2. Puneet Agarwal & Junlin Tang & Adithya Narayanan Lakshmi Narayanan & Jun Zhuang, 2020. "Big Data and Predictive Analytics in Fire Risk Using Weather Data," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(7), pages 1438-1449, July.

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