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Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment of Salmonellosis from the Consumption of Australian Pork: Minced Meat from Retail to Burgers Prepared and Consumed at Home

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  • Phillip M. Gurman
  • Tom Ross
  • Andreas Kiermeier

Abstract

Pork burgers could be expected to have an elevated risk of salmonellosis compared to other pork products due to their comminuted nature. A stochastic risk assessment was performed to estimate the risk of salmonellosis from Australian pork burgers and considered risk‐affecting factors in the pork supply chain from retail to consumption at home. Conditions modeled included prevalence and concentration of Salmonella in pork mince, time and temperature effects during retail, consumer transport, and domestic storage and the effect of cooking, with the probability of illness from consumption estimated based on these effects. The model was two‐dimensional, allowing for the separation of variability and uncertainty. Potential changes to production practices and consumer behaviors were examined through alternative scenarios. Under current conditions in Australia, the mean risk of salmonellosis from consumption of 100 g pork burgers was estimated to be 1.54×10−8 per serving or one illness per 65,000,000 servings consumed. Under a scenario in which all pork mince consumed is served as pork burgers, and with conservative (i.e., worst‐case) assumptions, 0.746 cases of salmonellosis per year from pork burgers in Australia were predicted. Despite the adoption of several conservative assumptions to fill data gaps, it is predicted that pork burgers have a low probability of causing salmonellosis in Australia.

Suggested Citation

  • Phillip M. Gurman & Tom Ross & Andreas Kiermeier, 2018. "Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment of Salmonellosis from the Consumption of Australian Pork: Minced Meat from Retail to Burgers Prepared and Consumed at Home," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(12), pages 2625-2645, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:38:y:2018:i:12:p:2625-2645
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.13163
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andreas Kiermeier & Ian Jenson & John Sumner, 2015. "Risk Assessment of Escherichia coli O157 Illness from Consumption of Hamburgers in the United States Made from Australian Manufacturing Beef," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(1), pages 77-89, January.
    2. Kaatje Els Bollaerts & Winy Messens & Laurent Delhalle & Marc Aerts & Yves Van der Stede & Jeroen Dewulf & Sophie Quoilin & Dominiek Maes & Koen Mintiens & Koen Grijspeerdt, 2009. "Development of a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Human Salmonellosis Through Household Consumption of Fresh Minced Pork Meat in Belgium," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(6), pages 820-840, June.
    3. Marie Laure Delignette-Muller & Christophe Dutang, 2015. "fitdistrplus : An R Package for Fitting Distributions," Post-Print hal-01616147, HAL.
    4. Peter F. M. Teunis & Nico J. D. Nagelkerke & Charles N. Haas, 1999. "Dose Response Models For Infectious Gastroenteritis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(6), pages 1251-1260, December.
    5. K. Glass & E. Fearnley & H. Hocking & J. Raupach & M. Veitch & L. Ford & M. D. Kirk, 2016. "Bayesian Source Attribution of Salmonellosis in South Australia," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(3), pages 561-570, March.
    6. Delignette-Muller, Marie Laure & Dutang, Christophe, 2015. "fitdistrplus: An R Package for Fitting Distributions," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 64(i04).
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    1. Huan Xu & Jing Liu & Mengqi Yuan & Cuifang Tian & Ting Lin & Jiawen Liu & Olivera Castro Osaris Caridad & Yingjie Pan & Yong Zhao & Zhaohuan Zhang, 2022. "Risk Reduction Assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus on Shrimp by a Chinese Eating Habit," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-11, December.

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