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The impact of weather insurance on consumption, investment, and welfare

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  • Francesca Nicola

Abstract

I develop and estimate a dynamic stochastic optimization model to assess the impact of weather insurance on the consumption, investment, and welfare of farmers in developing countries. Weather insurance has the potential to provide large welfare gains, equivalent to a permanent increase in consumption of almost 17%. Moreover, it can allow for the adoption of riskier but more productive seeds, further enhancing welfare. The interplay with other uninsured risks, the presence of liquidity constraints, basis risk, and loading factor on the insurance premium may account for the low take‐up that is often empirically observed.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesca Nicola, 2015. "The impact of weather insurance on consumption, investment, and welfare," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 6(3), pages 637-661, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:quante:v:6:y:2015:i:3:p:637-661
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    1. Takahashi, Kazushi & Noritomo, Yuma & Ikegami, Munenobu & Jensen, Nathaniel D., 2020. "Understanding pastoralists’ dynamic insurance uptake decisions: Evidence from four-year panel data in Ethiopia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    2. Ward, Patrick S. & Kumar, Neha & De Nicola, Francesca & Hill, Ruth & Makhija, Simrin & Spielman, David J. & Magnan, Nicholas, 2017. "Insuring Against Drought: Evidence on Agricultural Intensification and Demand for Index Insurance from a Randomized Evaluation in Rural Bangladesh," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258090, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Nurul Atiqah Binti Mohd Suib & Norlida Hanim Mohd Salleh & Mohd Fazim Ahmad, 2023. "The economic well-being of smallholders and challenges during COVID-19 pandemic: A review," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 69(1), pages 35-44.
    4. Arieska Wening Sarwosri & Oliver Mußhoff, 2020. "Are Risk Attitudes and Time Preferences Crucial Factors for Crop Diversification by Smallholder Farmers?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 922-942, August.
    5. Ricome, Aymeric & Affholder, François & Gérard, Françoise & Muller, Bertrand & Poeydebat, Charlotte & Quirion, Philippe & Sall, Moussa, 2017. "Are subsidies to weather-index insurance the best use of public funds? A bio-economic farm model applied to the Senegalese groundnut basin," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 149-176.
    6. Hansen, James & Hellin, Jon & Rosenstock, Todd & Fisher, Eleanor & Cairns, Jill & Stirling, Clare & Lamanna, Christine & van Etten, Jacob & Rose, Alison & Campbell, Bruce, 2019. "Climate risk management and rural poverty reduction," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 28-46.
    7. Ayako Matsuda & Kazushi Takahashi & Munenobu Ikegami, 2019. "Direct and indirect impact of index-based livestock insurance in Southern Ethiopia," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 44(3), pages 481-502, July.
    8. Chiara FALCO & Douch KONG & Valentina ROTONDI & Valeria SPELTA, 2016. "Investment, Insurance and Weather Shocks: Evidence from a Lab Experiment in Cambodia," Departmental Working Papers 2016-10, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    9. Hill, Ruth Vargas & Kumar, Neha & Magnan, Nicholas & Makhija, Simrin & de Nicola, Francesca & Spielman, David J. & Ward, Patrick S., 2019. "Ex ante and ex post effects of hybrid index insurance in Bangladesh," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1-17.
    10. Falco, Chiara & Rotondi, Valentina & Kong, Douch & Spelta, Valeria, 2021. "Investment, insurance and weather shocks: Evidence from Cambodia," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    11. Aina, I. & Ayinde, O.E. & Thiam, D. & Miranda, M., 2018. "Willingness to Pay for Index-Based Livestock Insurance: Perspectives from West Africa," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277383, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Williams Ali & Awudu Abdulai & Renan Goetz & Victor Owusu, 2021. "Risk, ambiguity and willingness to participate in crop insurance programs: Evidence from a field experiment," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(3), pages 679-703, July.
    13. Wening Sarwosri, Arieska & Mußhoff, Oliver, 2019. "Can crop diversification of perennial crop by smallholder farmers explained by risk attitudes and time preferences?," EFForTS Discussion Paper Series 28, University of Goettingen, Collaborative Research Centre 990 "EFForTS, Ecological and Socioeconomic Functions of Tropical Lowland Rainforest Transformation Systems (Sumatra, Indonesia)".
    14. Anita Mukherjee & Shawn Cole & Jeremy Tobacman, 2021. "Targeting weather insurance markets," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(3), pages 757-784, September.
    15. Hill, Ruth Vargas & Kumar, Neha & Magnan, Nicholas & Makhija, Simrin & de Nicola, Francesca & Spielman, David J. & Ward, Patrick S., 2017. "Insuring against droughts: Evidence on agricultural intensification and index insurance demand from a randomized evaluation in rural Bangladesh," IFPRI discussion papers 1630, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    16. Nigus, Halefom & Nillesen, Eleonora & Mohnen, Pierre, 2018. "The effect of weather index insurance on social capital: Experimental evidence from Ethiopia," MERIT Working Papers 2018-007, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    17. Mao, Hui & Quan, Yurong & Fu, Yong & Chen, Shaojian, 2022. "Risk preferences, productive investment and straw return technology adoption by farmers in China," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322087, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    18. Moritz, Laura & Kuhn, Lena & Bobojonov, Ihtiyor, 2022. "Crop index insurance for more welfare and climate resilience? An experimental approach," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322096, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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