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How Buoyant Is the Tax System? New Evidence from a Large Heterogeneous Panel

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  • Paolo Dudine
  • Joao Tovar Jalles

Abstract

In this paper, we provide short‐run and long‐run tax buoyancy estimates for 107 countries (distributed between advanced, emerging and low income) for the period 1980–2014. By means of fully modified ordinary least square (OLS) and (pooled) mean group estimators, we find that (1) for advanced economies, both long‐run and short‐run buoyancies are not different from 1; (2) long‐run tax buoyancy exceeds 1 in the case of corporate income tax (CIT) for advanced economies, personal income tax and social security contributions in emerging markets and taxes on goods and services for low‐income countries; (3) in advanced countries, the buoyancy of the CIT buoyancy is larger during contractions than during times of economic expansions, whereas in emerging market economies, this is the case for the CIT and taxes on goods and services; and (4) both trade openness and human capital increase buoyancy, while inflation and output volatility decrease it. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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  • Paolo Dudine & Joao Tovar Jalles, 2018. "How Buoyant Is the Tax System? New Evidence from a Large Heterogeneous Panel," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 961-991, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jintdv:v:30:y:2018:i:6:p:961-991
    DOI: 10.1002/jid.3332
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    1. Sanjeev Gupta & João Tovar Jalles & Jianhong Liu, 2022. "Tax Buoyancy in Sub-Saharan Africa and its Determinants," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(4), pages 890-921, August.
    2. Rrezarta Gashi & Liza Alili Sylejmani, 2020. "Econometric Approach of the Nexus Between Remittances and Economic Growth in Western Balkans," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(1), pages 254-262.
    3. Melisso Boschi & Stefano d'Addona, 2019. "The Stability of Tax Elasticities over the Business Cycle in European Countries," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(2), pages 175-210, June.
    4. Chiad, Faycal, 2022. "أثر الضرائب على الاستثمار والنمو الاقتصادي في الدول العربية: دراسة تحليلية قياسية [The impact of taxes on investment and economic growth in the Arab countries: Analytical and Econometric Study]," MPRA Paper 114425, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Andersson, Jens & Lazuka, Volha, 2019. "Long-term drivers of taxation in francophone West Africa 1893–2010," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 294-313.
    6. Karolina Konopczak & Aleksander Łożykowski, 2021. "Efekt fiskalny uszczelniania systemu podatkowego w Polsce: próba oszacowania w zakresie podatku CIT," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, vol. 1, pages 25-55, January.
    7. Sadananda Prusty & Anubha & Saurabh Gupta, 2021. "On the Road to Recovery: The Role of Post-Lockdown Stimulus Package," FIIB Business Review, , vol. 11(2), pages 206-224, June.
    8. Bernd Hayo & Sascha Mierzwa & Umut Ünal, 2023. "Estimating policy-corrected long-term and short-term tax elasticities for the USA, Germany, and the United Kingdom," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 465-504, January.
    9. Charalambos Pattichis, 2022. "Are tax revenue elasticities consistent with a balanced government budget? An analysis and implications for six CEE countries," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 33-40.
    10. Sean Dougherty & Pietrangelo Biase, 2021. "Who absorbs the shock? An analysis of the fiscal impact of the COVID-19 crisis on different levels of government," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 517-540, July.
    11. Martina Yakova, 2019. "Tax buoyancy of the EU-28 countries – a comparative analysis," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 59-73.
    12. Stoyan Tanchev & Ivan Todorov, 2019. "Tax Buoyancy and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence of Bulgaria," Journal of Tax Reform, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 5(3), pages 236-248.
    13. Chakraborty, Lekha S & Thomas, Emmanuel & Gandhi, Piyush, 2019. "Natural Resources Revenue Buoyancy in India: Empirical Evidence From State-specific Mining Regime," MPRA Paper 99293, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2020.
    14. De Pascale, Gianluigi & Fiore, Mariantonietta & Contò, Francesco, 2021. "Short and long run environmental tax buoyancy in EU-28: a panel study," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 1-9.
    15. Francis Kwaw Andoh & Nehemiah E. Osoro & Eliab Luvanda, 2019. "Growth Dynamics of Value-Added Tax Revenue in Ghana," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 13(2), June.
    16. Lagravinese, Raffaele & Liberati, Paolo & Sacchi, Agnese, 2020. "Tax buoyancy in OECD countries: New empirical evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    17. Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, 2018. "Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of Structural Reforms in Chile," IMF Working Papers 2018/285, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Bernd Hayo & Sascha Mierzwa & Umut Unal, 2021. "Estimating Policy-Corrected Long-Term and Short-Term Tax Elasticities for the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202112, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    19. Akeem Rahaman & Scott Mark Romeo Mahadeo, 2024. "Constructing country-specific debt sustainability indices for developing countries," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2024-01, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.
    20. J. Atsu Amegashie, 2023. "The Debt-to-GDP Ratio as a Tool for Debt Management: Not Good for LICs," CESifo Working Paper Series 10273, CESifo.
    21. Direye, Eli, 2017. "An empirical study on the dynamic effects of fiscal shock on the economy of Papua New Guinea," MPRA Paper 113917, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Fulgence Dominick Waryoba, 2018. "Import Base and Revenue Improvement Possibilities in Tanzania," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 4(1), pages 21-28, March.
    23. Audi, Marc & Ali, Amjad & Roussel, Yannick, 2021. "Measuring the Tax Buoyancy: Empirics from South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)," MPRA Paper 109567, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Chakraborty, Lekha S. & Thomas, Emmanuel & Gandhi, Piyush, 2020. "Natural Resources Revenue Buoyancy in India: Empirical Evidence From State-specific Mining Regime," Working Papers 20/313, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.

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